Lions vs. Patriots Prediction & Odds
A pair of 1-3 teams face off in Foxboro, MA on Sunday afternoon when Week 5’s NFL Sunday early slate begins at 1:00 PM ET. Can New England triumph as 3-point home favorites?
The Detroit Lions are 1-3 through their first 4 games of 2022. They beat the Commanders in week 2 but lost to the Eagles, Vikings, and Seahawks. The Lions are 3-1 ATS this year.
The New England Patriots are 1-3 so far this season. They beat the Steelers in week 2 but dropped games to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Packers. The Patriots are 1-2-1 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
469 Detroit Lions +3 at 470 New England Patriots -3; o/u 45.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 9, 2022
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Lions vs. Patriots Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public is slightly favoring the Lions in this game. According to our numbers, 53% of public bets are on the Lions +3. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so make sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
Detroit Lions DFS Spin
Believe it or not, the 1-3 Detroit Lions have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. They’re averaging 35 points per game. Their quarterback, Jared Goff is leading the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and is fifth in passing yards (1,126). He would be a great play at quarterback against the Patriots on Sunday. Lions running back Jamaal Williams thrived in the absence of starter D’Andre Swift last weekend. Williams ran for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks. Swift won’t play Sunday, so Jamaal Williams would be a great choice again this week. For pass catchers, I recommend monitoring the injury status of wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds who are both questionable. If you’d like to go a different route, try Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson, who exploded for 179 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns last week.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury for this week’s game against the Detroit Lions. That means rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe will be making his first-ever NFL start. Zappe may have been a decorated college player but Conference USA is a far cry from the NFL. I’d steer clear of any Patriots pass catchers this week and instead focus on the running backs. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry and they’ve both passed the 200-yard mark for the season. They figure to get a lot of work against a Detroit team that is last in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.6) this season.
Lions vs. Patriots Betting Trends
The over is 6-0 in Detroit’s last 6 games overall.
The over is 5-0 in Detroit’s last 5 games following an outright loss.
The over is 7-0 in New England’s last 7 home games.
The over is 9-1 on New England’s last 10 games on field turf.
New England is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Lions vs. Patriots Prediction:
The total for this game is 45.5. I think there’s a ton of value in the over. Detroit is scoring 35 points per game and allowing 35.3 points per game. Bailey Zappe threw for an NCAA record 5,967 yards and an NCAA record 62 touchdowns in his senior year at Western Kentucky. He can sling the ball. Jared Goff and the Detroit offense have been putting up points as well, and I think they continue that trend on Sunday afternoon. Detroit’s big weakness is defense and they now get to face the Patriots and a rookie third-string quarterback. I think the Lions are a live money line underdog at +140 but I’ll take Detroit and the points as the pick.
NFL WEEK 5 PREDICTION: DETROIT LIONS +3
