NFL BETTING REPORT
Now that we have reached Week 4 of the NFL season, we wondered how teams that started the season at 3-0 either SU or ATS fared in this fourth week. Well he did the research as found the results to be quite homey.
Starting with teams that began the year 3-0 STRAIGHT UP, these clubs have fared very well if their fourth game is at home, going 30-19-1, 61.2 percent ATS since 1985. However it has been a totally different story if the fourth game is on the road, as the undefeated teams went just 32-45-5, 41.6 percent ATS in this circumstance. Put another way, simply betting the HOME team in any Week 4 game involving a 3-0 SU team would have yielded a nifty record of 75-51, 59.5 percent ATS over the last 21 years!
We then turned our focus to teams that began the year 3-0 ATS hoping to see similar results, but we were only half right. Teams that began the year 3-0 ATS and then were at home in Week 4 only hovered around the 50 percent range, so no profit could have been made either way. However, the best angle we found from a percentage standpoint was when the 3-0 ATS teams were on the road in Week 4, as these clubs went just 15-30-5, for a prime GO-AGAINST of 66.7 percent since 1985!
We did the work for you and have found three plays this week that qualify under Angle #1, three more under Angle #2 including one dual qualifier, and two under Angle #3 including another dual qualifier.
ANGLE #1
NFL Week 4 Only – Play ON Home Team that is 3-0 SU (30-19-1, 61.2% ATS since 1985)
Week 4 Plays (HOME teams are the plays):
SUNDAY, October 1
San Diego -2.5 at BALTIMORE (1:00 ET) – Getting points with the Ravens is a nice bonus here as home underdogs that qualify under this system are 4-1, 80.0 percent ATS.
New England at CINCINNATI -6 (4:15 ET) – The Bengals showed us a lot last week by winning in Pittsburgh, and the weak New England receiving corps may be its undoing here.
Seattle at CHICAGO -3.5 (8:15 ET) – As you will see, this is a dual qualifier because it is a battle of two unbeaten SU teams. Also Shaun Alexander being out for Seattle makes this task a bit easier for the Bears.
ANGLE #2
NFL Week 4 Only – Play AGAINST Road Team that is 3-0 SU (45-32-5, 58.4% ATS since 1985)
Week 4 Plays (HOME teams are the plays):
SUNDAY, October 1
New Orleans at CAROLINA -8 (1:00 ET) – The system says to play AGAINST the Saints and on Carolina here. This is a lot of points to give, but New Orleans is in a HUGE letdown spot after reopening the Super Dome Monday night.
Indianapolis -9 at NY JETS (1:00 ET) – This is the system play we like the least, as we just do not see how the Jets offense can keep pace with Manning and Co. Still, New York is the play for tracking purposes.
Seattle at CHICAGO -3.5 (8:15 ET) – Chicago is a double qualifier from Angle #1 above.
ANGLE #3
NFL Week 4 Only – Play AGAINST Road Team that is 3-0 ATS (30-15-5, 66.7% ATS since 1985)
Week 4 Plays (HOME teams are the plays):
SUNDAY, October 1
New Orleans at CAROLINA -8 (1:00 ET) – Carolina is a dual qualifier from Angle #2 above.
Minnesota at BUFFALO -1 (1:00 ET) – We are actually on the opposite side of this one, as we feel that Minnesota is the far superior team. Still, Buffalo IS home, so you just never know.
By: David Michaels – theSpread.com – Email Us
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