The Patriots over the Bengals in Week 1. The Bucs over the Lions, the 49ers over the Vikings and the Raiders over the Ravens in Week 2. Last Sunday, it was the Giants over the Browns, the Broncos over the Bucs and the Panthers over the Raiders. What do the NFL betting trends through Week 3 tell us about underdogs?
NFL Betting Trends: Underdogs are only Slightly Profitable
It may feel that underdogs are killing it every week this season in the NFL, but they’ve only been slightly profitable. Through three weeks, underdogs are 24-22-2 against the spread, cashing at 52.2%. If we factor in a standard vig of -110, that means a $100.00 bettor would be down -$20.00 if they only took underdogs.
That said, away teams are 26-20-2 against the spread this season, cashing for bettors at a 56.5% clip. Away favorites at 7-5-1 ATS (58.3%), while away dogs are 19-15-1 against the number (55.88%) this season.
NFL Betting Trends: Heavy Underdogs have been Profitable
While it hasn’t been profitable to simply back the underdogs this season, it has been worth it to back bigger dogs.
Through Monday night’s double header, underdogs of 6 or more are 11-2 against the spread. Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 9-1 ATS and if you’ve backed an underdog of 7.5 or more, congratulations, you’re batting 1.000 on the season at 4-0.
One more note on big dogs: They’re winning outright. The Patriots (Week 1 at Cincinnati), the Bucs (Week 2 at Detroit), the Raiders (Week 2 at Baltimore) and Commanders (Week 3 at Cincinnati) all cashed outright as an underdog of +7.5 or more.
NFL Betting Trends: Bettor Beware
If you want to jump on the trend of backing the big underdogs, you may want to follow it for only another week or so. Remember, there’s virtually no preseason anymore for these NFL teams. Coaches don’t want starters to get injured before the season starts, so they hold those players out in August.
What happens when these starters have four or five games under their belts? Will these underdogs still sneak up on these big favorites? As always, if you’re following trends, just remember that the pendulum can swing back at any point. Regression to the mean is real.