Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? He’s the current favorite at +140 but is there a better bet on the board?
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Prominent Players
- Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) – Williams, the first overall pick, is the favorite to win the OROY. The Bears have a strong supporting cast including DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Arizona Cardinals) – As a top receiver in the draft, Harrison Jr. has favorable odds. He’s expected to be a significant contributor to the Cardinals’ offense.
- Jayden Daniels (QB, Washington Commanders) – Daniels brings both passing and rushing skills, making him a versatile threat on the field. His dual-threat capability gives him a solid chance at the OROY award.
- J.J. McCarthy (QB, Minnesota Vikings) – The Vikings have a talented offense, but will McCarthy start enough games to qualify for the award? Sam Darnold is the current starter in Minnesota.
- Malik Nabers (WR, New York Giants) – Nabers has a clear path to lead the Giants in targets. That will keep him in contention for the award despite being on a less favorable team compared to others on this list.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Williams is the current favorite at +140, followed by Daniels at +650 and Harrison Jr. at +750. From there, the odds jump. Nabers is +1500, Bo Nix of the Broncos and J.J. McCarthy of the Vikings are both +1700, respectively.
Continuing with the odds, Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) and Drake Maye (Patriots) are both +2000, respectively, while Keon Coleman (Bills) is +2600. Rome Odunze (Bears), Ladd McConkey (Chargers) and Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) are all +3000, respectively, followed by Brock Bowers (Raiders) at +4000.
Finally, Jonathon Brooks (Panthers), Blake Corum (Rams), Ricky Pearsall (49ers) and Jaylen Wright (Dolphins) are all +5000, respectively. Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Jermaine Burton (Bengals), Trey Benson (Cardinals, Ja’Lynn Polk (Patriots), Xavier Legette (Panthers) and Adonai Mitchell (Colts) are all +7500, respectively.
NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction
If we look at the recent history of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, six straight winners were drafted in the top-10. Only two of the players were quarterbacks (Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud), while two were defensive ends (Nick Bosa and Aidan Hutchinson), one was a receiver (Ja’Marr Chase) and one was a running back (Saquon Barkley).
If we stick with the 10 players from the top-10 of this past year’s draft, we can start to eliminate players immediately. For starters, unless Kirk Cousins suffers another season-ending injury, Penix Jr. won’t draw enough starts to win rookie of the year in Atlanta. The same argument can be made for McCarthy, who is likely to work behind Sam Darnold, at least initially.
Staying with the quarterbacks, there’s a reason why Williams is favored – he should be – but his odds aren’t as attractive as others in the top-10. Maye could really struggle in New England with a bad Patriots roster, so let’s chuck him as well. That gets us down to six: Daniels, Harrison Jr., Alt, Nabers, Latham and Odunze.
An offensive lineman has never won rookie of the year, so we can cross off Alt and Latham. Now we’re down to four: Daniels, Harrison Jr., Nabers and Odunze.
I like Daniels. Washington’s defense will be suspect, even after the hiring of Dan Quinn, who did a great job with Dallas as the Cowboys defensive coordinator over the last three seasons. Thus, Daniels will have an opportunity to rack up big time numbers in both the passing and running game.
The only knock on Daniels is that he’s unlikely to win much in Washington. However, if he does surprise like Stroud did and the Commanders make the playoffs, then he could be a slam dunk. And at +650 odds, he’s a great value.
NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Jayden Daniels +650
