Will Patrick Mahomes lead the NFL in passing yards during the regular season next year? Or is there a better bet based on the odds?
NFL Passing Yards Betting Odds
According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Mahomes is the current betting favorite at +650. Houston Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud is +750, followed by Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott of the Cowboys at +1000, respectively. Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Jared Goff (Lions) are both +1100, respectively.
Continuing with the odds, Matthew Stafford (Rams) is +1600 to lead the league in passing yards next season, followed by Jordan Love (Packers) at +1700. Brock Purdy (49ers) is +1800, Kirk Cousins (Falcons) is +1900 and Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) is +2000.
Some of the mid-range long-shots are Josh Allen (Bills) at +2300, Justin Herbert (Chargers) at +2600 and Aaron Rodgers (Packers), who is also +2600. Jalen Hurts (Eagles) and Caleb Williams (Bears) are both +3000, respectively, while Will Levis (Titans) and Geno Smith (Seahawks) are both +3100, respectively.
The rest of the odds can be found at the link above.
NFL Passing Yards Leader History
Tagovailoa led the league in passing last season with 4,624 yards, while Mahomes led the NFL in 2022 with 5,250. Tom Brady, now retired, led the NFL in passing with 5,316 yards in 2021 and Deshaun Watson led the league in 2020 with 4,823 when he was still a member of the Texans.
One thing that stands out as we build a prediction list based on the odds is that Drew Brees was the last player to lead the NFL in passing in consecutive seasons. While playing under center for the dynamic Saints, Brees led the league in passing in 2014, 2015 and 2016. He also led the league in passing yards in 2011 and 2012, but again, he was the last quarterback to go back-to-back.
NFL Passing Yards Prediction
For starters, let’s eliminate Tagovailoa since it’s rare that a quarterback will go back-to-back with this prop. Let’s also eliminate Mahomes, since he’s the obvious choice, and Stroud, who has similar odds to Mahomes.
The next-best odds are for Prescott and Burrow. While Prescott finished third in passing yards last season, I think Burrow is the better bet coming off the injury. The last time Burrow was coming off an injury was in 2020 when he shredded his knee as a rookie after only 10 games. He returned in 2021 and posted a career-high 4,611 yards and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. In 2022 when he took Cincinnati back to the AFC title game, Burrow threw for 4,475 yards.
I don’t see the Bengals having a dynamic rushing attack this season and I don’t believe the Bengals will be as good a team this season as they have been in years past. Theoretically, Burrow will need to throw more while trailing. He also has plenty of weapons in the passing game.
Others to Consider:
Matthew Stafford (+1600). If he stays healthy, he’ll put up big numbers.
Jared Goff (+1100). Armed with a new contract and a goal to get the Lions back to the NFC title game, Goff will post huge passing numbers again this season.
NFL PASSING YARDS PREDICTION: JOE BURROW MOST PASSING YARDS (+1100)