Tyreek Hill of the Dolphins lead the NFL in receiving yards last year and is favored to do so again this upcoming season. Will Hill go back-to-back? Or is there a better bet on the board?
NFL Regular Season Receiving Yards Odds
Hill is the current favorite at +550 odds, followed by CeeDee Lamb at +700 and Justin Jefferson at +750. Amon-Ra St. Brown is +950, followed by Ja’Marr Chase at +1200 and A.J. Brown at +1500. Garrett Wilson of the Jets is +2000, followed by Puka Nacua at +2200 and Marvin Harrison Jr. at +2600.
Continuing with the odds, Nico Collins is +2700, followed by Drake London at +2800 and Chris Olave at +2900. Jaylen Waddle, Hill’s teammate, is +3000, followed by Mike Evans and George Picks at +4000, respectively. DeVonta Smith and Cooper Kupp are both +4200, respectively, to lead the league in receiving yards, followed by Brandon Aiyuk at +4400.
Davante Adams and Michael Pittman Jr. are both +4500, respectively, while D.J. Moore is +4700 and D.J. Metcalk are +4900. Malik Nabers and Amari Cooper are both +5000, respectively, followed by Christian Kirk, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin and Tee Higgins are both +5500, respectively.
2023 NFL Receiving Yards Recap
Hill led the league in receiving with 1,799 yards, followed by Lamb at 1,749. St. Brown posted 1,515 yards, followed by Nacua at 1,496 and Brown at 1,456. Moore has racked up 1,364 yards, while Aiyuk has racked up 1,342 yards and Collins posted 1,297 yards for the surprising Texans. Evans (1,255) and Cooper (1,250) round out the top-10.
NFL Receiving Yards Prediction
The last time a player went back-to-back in receiving yards was Calvin Johnson, who led the league in receiving yards in 2011 and 2012. Thus, I’m going to cross Hill off the list. Is he the most likely to lead the league in receiving as we sit here in mid-July? Absolutely. He plays for one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL and he’s the ultimate game-changer. That said, it’s been 11 seasons since any receiver has gone back-to-back in yards and Hill doesn’t have the most attractive odds as it stands.
So which receiver makes sense to back for this prop? I like St. Brown at +1000. The former USC Trojan signed a four-year contract extension worth $120 million back in April, a deal worth $77 million in guarantees.
St. Brown’s 225 receptions since the start of the 2022 season rank third in the NFL behind Lamb and Hill. He’s sixth in targets over that two-year span and fifth in receiving yardage. He primarily plays out of the slot, so he’ll continue to see a slew of targets and have an opportunity to rack up yards in Detroit’s highly proficient offense. With Jared Goff also receiving a new deal this offseason from the Lions, the offense has every opportunity to have continuity.
After he finished just 284 yards behind Hill and 234 yards shy of Lamb, I think St. Brown is the safest bet to finish somewhere again in the top-3. And with +1000 odds, he offers bettors plenty of value.
2024 NFL RECEIVING YARDS PREDICTION: AMON-RA ST. BROWN +1000
