Will Christian McCaffrey lead the NFL in rushing yards next season? The 49ers do-it-all running back is the current favorite to lead the league in rushing at +600, but is he the best bet?
NFL Rushing Yards Odds
As previously mentioned, McCaffrey is the current favorite at Fanduel Sportsbook at +650 odds. Breece Hall (Jets) has the next-best odds at +950, followed by Jonathan Taylor (Colts) at +1000. Kyren Williams (Rams), meanwhile, is +1400 to lead the NFL in rushing, as is Saquon Barkley, who signed with the Eagles in the offseason.
Continuing with the odds, Josh Jacobs (Packers) and Bijan Robinson (Falcons) are both +1700, respectively, while Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) is +2000. Derrick Henry, who signed with the Ravens this offseason, is +2100.
Some of the other mid-range long shots include Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) and De’Von Achane (Dolphins) at +2400, respectively. Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) and Travis Etienne (Jaguars) are both +2700, respectively, while Zamir White (Raiders) and James Cook (Bills) are both +3000, respectively. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is +3100.
NFL Rushing Yards History
McCaffrey lead the NFL in rushing with 1,459 yards in 2023 and Jacobs accomplished the feat in 2022 by rushing for 1,653. Taylor, meanwhile, led the league in rushing in 2021, while Henry accomplished the feat in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020. Ezekiel Elliott was the leading rusher in 2018 and 2016, while Kareem Hunt was the league-leader in 2017.
Henry is the only back to lead the league in rushing in consecutive seasons since 2006 and 2007, when LaDainian Tomlinson was the NFL’s top rusher.
NFL Rushing Yards Prediction
I’m going to start off by crossing CMC off the list. As previously mentioned, it’s rare when a rusher goes back-to-back and McCaffrey doesn’t have the best odds. So again, let’s cross him off.
Taylor is a solid play as well, as is Hall. Williams is extremely talented, but the Rams love to throw the ball with Matthew Stafford and I don’t see Sean McVay changing his play-calling ways. Barkley is a stud but Jalen Hurts will also run plenty in Philly and the former first-rounder out of Penn State has a lengthy injury history.
So who do I see as the best value? The second year back Robinson, who is +1700.
Let’s talk about the drawbacks first. Robinson will lose some carries throughout the season to Tyler Allgeier, the third-year back that has proven that he’s capable of being productive. Outside of Allgeier, however, I don’t envision sixth-round rookie Jase McClellan cutting into Robinson’s workload.
The other factor is Raheem Morris, the new head coach for the Falcons. While he has spent time on the offensive side (previously with the Falcons, ironically), Morris is a defensive coach by nature. Defensive coaches love to run the ball. Why? Because it helps protect their defenses. And Morris is already on record that the Falcons play to use Robinson just like the 49ers use…2023 leading rusher Christian McCaffrey.
Perfect. Sign me up.
2024 NFL LEADING RUSHING YARDS PREDICTION: BIJAN ROBINSON +1700