Following a surprising AFC South Division championship and a playoff victory, will the Texans take that preverbal next step? Furthermore, are they a sound bet to go over their 9.5-win total for the 2024 NFL season?
Houston Texans 2023 Recap
The Texans made two changes heading into 2023 that made a significant impact. Their decision to hire former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans was a game-changer. He re-set a poor culture in Houston and changed the direction of the franchise immediately. The other significant addition the Texans made prior to 2023 was selecting former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. Stroud won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl in his first season, leading the Texans to a shocking 10-7 record.
While their season ended with a 34-10 loss in the Divisional round to the Ravens, the Texans still had a remarkable first season under Ryans. That included a 45-14 home playoff victory over the Browns in the Wild Card round.
2024 Win Total Odds
According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Texans’ over/under for wins sits at 9.5. The odds are juiced to the over at -144. Bettors will receive plus odds at +118 if they bet the under. Houston is also +1500 to win the Super Bowl in 2024 and is +105 to repeat as AFC South Division champs.
2024 Offseason Recap
After winning the division last season, the Texans didn’t rest on their success. They were active this offseason, adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade with the Bills and acquiring running back Joe Mixon from the Bengals. The team also signed free agent Danielle Hunter (previously with the Vikings) and selected cornerback Kamari Lassiter in the second round of the NFL draft. They also took offensive tackle Blake Fisher in the second round and free safety Calen Bullock in the third.
2024 Houston Texans Win Total Prediction
Take the under. This will be an unpopular projection among most bettors, but especially the ones that cashed week after week last season when they realized oddsmakers had undervalued Houston. That said, here me out before throwing stones.
The Texans won’t sneak up on opponents this season like they did a year ago when they won 10 games. Every defensive coordinator in the league knows what Stroud is capable of and have scoured film looking for weaknesses. The additions of Diggs and Mixon to an offense that already has Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz makes Houston’s offense more intimidating on paper. In reality, Stroud now has the unenviable task of feeding more mouths. The pressure has been turned up on the second-year signal-caller.
Here’s another reality: The schedule is harder this season. After winning the AFC South last season, the Texans will play a first-place schedule in 2024. Theoretically, Stroud will face better defenses in 2024 than he did in 2023.
Finally, we have to consider the odds. If you’re a $100.00 bettor and you place a wager on the over, you’ll need to invest $144.00 to win your $100.00. I believe the Texans win between 9-11 games this season. If I’m right about the schedule difficulties and the offense not gelling out of the gates, Houston could finish with 9 wins. As an under bettor on this prop, that means the same $100.00 bettor would earn $118.00. I like those odds.
Houston Texans 2024 NFL Win Total Prediction: UNDER 9.5 (+118)
