Welcome football fans, to the first Sunday of the NFL season? Following the Chiefs’ opening night victory over the Ravens and the Eagles’ sloppy win over the Packers on Friday night, here are my five best bets for Sunday’s NFL action.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. ET
I don’t care which player starts under center for the Steelers in Atlanta, I’m backing Pittsburgh as an underdog. With Russell Wilson dealing with a calf injury, Justin Fields is expected to start today in Atlanta. Good. I was going to back the Steelers with Wilson, but Fields makes me love Pittsburgh even more today.
The Falcons were one of the few teams that made Fields look like a quarterback last season. Then the signal-caller with the Bears, Fields completed 20-of-32 passes for 268 yards with one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown in Chicago’s 37-17 romp. While Atlanta has a new head coach (their former one is ironically now Fields’ offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh) and a new defensive staff, this is still the same sorry Falcons that looked like crap that day in Chicago.
Kirk Cousins also hasn’t played since tearing his Achilles tendon last season with the Vikings. Who knows what sort of playing condition he is as he takes over a new offense in Atlanta. And regardless of its Mike Smith, Dan Quinn or Arthur Smith, the Falcons can’t help but to lose close games. Guess what? All the Steelers play is close games. The difference is, they win those games.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m. ET
Earlier this week, there was concern that this game could be played in a monsoon. Outside of 10 mph winds and a low chance of a random pop-up shower, the weather now looks good in South Florida.
Mike McDaniel’s offense thrived in the first half of the season last year. The Dolphins scored 36 points in Week 1 at the Chargers, 24 at New England in Week 2 and a whopping 70 points versus the Broncos in their home opener on September 24. They cooled the following week when they only scored 20 at Buffalo, but odds are high that Miami scores plenty today.
Can the Jaguars keep pace? I actually like Jacksonville’s offense more than most. Trevor Lawrence has to cut down on the turnovers if he has a chance to live up to his new contract, but he has the skill set to beat teams with both his arm and his legs (he’s an underrated runner). We’ll see what rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. has to offer this offense, but Lawrence still has Travis Etienne Jr. in the backfield, as well as steady and reliable Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Plus, the Jags added a deep threat in Gabe Davis.
Take the over today in Miami.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Over 49
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 p.m. ET
This matchup has plenty of potential to be high-scoring. That said, I actually think this game has sneaky-under potential.
Now that the Bills no longer have flame thrower Stefon Diggs in their passing game, I think they’re going to go with more of a ball control offense under OC Joe Brady. They’ll use plenty of double tight ends and lean more on their running game to help take some pressure off Josh Allen. He’s a franchise QB and the offense centers on him, but he often tries to be Superman because he feels like he has to in order for Buffalo to win. No longer.
As for Arizona, the Cardinals have Kyler Murray healthy and a new toy at his disposal in Marvin Harrison Jr. However, it could take a couple of weeks for this offense to find its footing. Plus, with 15-20 mph winds and gusts around 25mph projected for Buffalo this afternoon, this game could wind up being the windiest matchup on Sunday’s slate.
I like the demise of the Bills was greatly exaggerated this offseason and again, I see this game being lower-scoring than most believe.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: UNDER 46.5
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 p.m. ET
There’s a ton of hype surrounding Houston this season, and rightfully so. That said, I think people are sleeping on the Colts. Anthony Richardson coming back from injury his a big question mark entering the season. However, let’s keep in mind that the Colts nearly made the playoffs last season with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Had not been for a keep drop in their final game of the season, they would have been a playoff team. They’re talented, they just need their big QB to stay healthy this season.
This is a divisional matchup with the potential to come down to the wire. Richardson and the Colts nearly upset the Jaguars in Week 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium a year ago and this game has a similar feel with the Texans also being an AFC South contender.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +3
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET
Outside of this being a divisional matchup and the Chargers going through a transition under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, I don’t understand why this line is so low. The Raiders look like they could be a disaster. The aforementioned Minshew is tough and plays with grit, but the Raiders’ offensive line is an absolute mess. I could see Davante Adams wanting out again halfway through the season.
As for the Chargers, their depth chart looks significantly different than it did a year ago without Harbaugh in charge. Gone are offensive stalwarts Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. In are second-round pick Ladd McConkey and former Ravens running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
That said, Harbaugh knows what he’s doing, as he’s succeeded everyone he’s coached. He also still has Justin Herbert and at least for our purposes today, a defense that will make the Raiders’ offensive pieces miserable.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers -3