No longer a traditional point spread and over/under bettor? No sweat. With no shortage of options for Sunday’s action, here are five best bets for the NFL Week 1 Prop Player market.
NFL Week 1 Prop Player Prediction: Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Let’s start here: I expect the Jaguars-Dolphins game to be one of the highest-scoring matchups on Sunday’s slate. There should be ample opportunities for touchdowns on both sides. With so much star power in Miami’s offense, Mostert continues to be the forgotten man. That said, he was the Dolphins’ leading scorer last season, producing an incredible 21 touchdowns in just 15 games. Give me those plus odds with Mostert to find the end zone today.
NFL Week 1 Prop Player Prediction: Joshua Palmer over 4.5 Receptions (-114)
The Chargers will run the ball plenty under Jim Harbaugh. That said, they still have Justin Herbert at quarterback, who no longer has Keenan Allen (Bears) or Mike Williams (Jets) to throw to in the passing game. When he does go to pass, he’ll look out and see rookie Ladd McConkey in the lot and former first round pick Quentin Johnston, who did little with his opportunities last season. That leaves Palmer as Herbert’s likely WR1 in L.A. He can handle it, too, which is why Harbaugh felt comfortable jettisoning Allen and Williams. Palmer needs to stay healthy, but he flashed plenty of times last season. If nothing else, he’ll be peppered plenty when the Chargers do put the ball in the air.
NFL Week 1 Prop Player Prediction: Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown +105
This play is similar to the previous one involving Mostert. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as options in the passing game, White often flies under the radar in Tampa. That said, he handed 94.1% of the Bucs’ running back carries in goal-to-go situations last season. Assuming the Bucs have multiple goal line opportunities today against the Commanders, we should have multiple cracks at cashing this prop.
NFL Week 1 Prop Player Prediction: Jared Goff over 23.5 Completions
When these two teams met last season in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs, Goff completed 81.5% of his passes. He accomplished that feat despite facing Aaron Donald. Now that the future Hall of Famer has retired, Goff should have even more time to find open receivers in Ben Johnson’s passing game.
Of course, the question becomes whether or not Goff will need to put the ball in the air enough in order for us to cash this prop. He should. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay will be on the other side tonight. With revenge on their minds, they’ll keep the pedal down. In turn, the Lions will need to do the same. Don’t forget that Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is one of the most aggressive coaches in the league when it comes to going for it on fourth down. That could lead to a few more pass attempts for Goff tonight as well.
NFL Week 1 Prop Player Prediction: Kyle Pitts under 44.5 Receiving Yards
Even though they are/were completely different players, Pitts reminds me of former Rams and Cowboys receiver Tavon Austin. The former first-rounder was billed as a do-it-all secret weapon that was going to allow the Rams offense to exploit defenses on a weekly basis. When he didn’t, the media blamed St. Louis’ coaching staff for not knowing how to utilize Austin.
Considering that same coaching staff – led by former NFL head coach Jeff Fisher – had Austin lining up in the backfield and running between the tackles, the media wasn’t necessarily off. That said, the prevailing thought was that if Austin ever winds up with a head coach that knew what he was doing, then his career could truly blossom. Despite playing for McVay at one point – one of the best play callers in the NFL – and Austin still didn’t produce, perhaps it was the player and not the coach.
Long story short, I’m in prove it mode with Pitts. Everyone loves him. He’s regarded as a “unicorn” at the tight end position. But the fact is: He’s not a tight end. He’s a receiver. He’s not big enough to play tight end and not fast enough to be a receiver. He’s a tweener. Regardless of what system he’s in or who is throwing him the ball, I think Pitts will under deliver.
