Will Najee Harris find pay dirt on Sunday when his Steelers visit the Commanders? Will receivers Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown take advantage of two defenses that allow a lot of scores to wideouts? Check out our NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Predictions.
NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Recap
My first installment on this column was in Week 8 and I went 3-0 with my anytime touchdown predictions. A $100.00 bettor would have been up $355.00 following that week.
As for my Week 9 anytime touchdown predictions, I recommended CeeDee Lamb (+100) to find the end zone versus the Falcons, James Cook (-120) to reach pay dirt versus the Dolphins and Chris Olave (+155) to score against the Panthers. While Lamb caught eight passes for 47 yards and a 2-point conversion, the Falcons unfortunately held him out of the end zone. Olave also suffered a concussion in the first half against the Panthers. Cook was also stymied by the Dolphins, so all my good fortunate from Week 8 did not carry over into Week 9.
My record is now 3-3. A $100.00 bettor would still be up +$35.00.
NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Prediction: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (+100)
Harris has rushed for 106, 102 and 114 yards over his past three games with a touchdown in two out of his last three contests. Through five games, he has rushed 82 times for 3.3 yards per carry with an explosive run on just 6.1% of his attempts. Over his last three games, he has rushed 54 times for 6.0 yards per carry and has an explosive run on 20.4% of his runs.
As good as Washington has been this season, the Commanders still allow a league-high 5.23 yards per carry to running backs. They have also allowed a league-high 16.3% of running back runs to gain 10 or more yards.
Harris will have his opportunities to find the end zone.
NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Prediction: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (-110)
Jefferson has only scored one touchdown in his last four games. That said, the outstanding receiver caught a touchdown in four straight games to start the season. He is peppered with targets in Minnesota’s passing game, seeing 41 more targets than the next-closest receiver.
On Sunday, Jefferson will face one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are tied for the NFL lead with 19 touchdowns allowed through the air. They play man coverage on 38.3% of passing snaps, which is the third highest in the league. Jefferson has 38.0% of the team targets with 4.66 yards per route against man coverage this season. He has three touchdowns against man-to-man coverage.
NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions (+105)
St. Brown has scored a touchdown in his last six games and we’re getting plus odds on his TD prop tonight? Sign me up. He will face a Houston defense that has allowed the second-most passing scores through nine weeks. That’s tied with Jacksonville at 19 – the same Jaguars defense that I’m targeting with Justin Jefferson.
Taking it a step further, the Texans are allowing a league-high 15.3% touchdown rate to slot receivers this season. They have surrendered nine touchdowns to slot receivers.
