Despite a strong finish to 2023, will the Bills struggle to win 11 games this upcoming NFL season? Or despite the offseason changes, is Buffalo still a strong bet to cash the over 10.5 for their win total in 2024?
Bills 2023 Recap
For the majority of the 2023 NFL season, the AFC East was the Dolphins’ division to lose. Then the Bills made a strong push to close out the regular season and the two teams finished with identical 11-6 records. Buffalo owning the tiebreaker over Miami meant that the Dolphins went to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in one of the coldest games in NFL history, while the Bills hosted an overmatched Pittsburgh team, destroying them 31-17 in the process.
Unfortunately for the Bills, their season ended a week later versus the aforementioned Chiefs. Despite leading Kansas City 17-13 at halftime and 24-20 heading into the fourth quarter, the Bills didn’t generated any offense in the fourth quarter and succumbed to a 27-24 defeat.
Bills Offseason Recap
The Bills were active this offseason, but they drew negative reviews for the decisions they made with key players. The biggest criticism they reciceved was in the Stefon Diggs trade to Houston. Diggs was Josh Allen’s No. 1 receiver. The team also allowed WR Gabe Davis to walk in free agency and while the team replaced Diggs and Gavis with Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, none will strike fear into opposing defenses this upcoming season. Perhaps rookie Keon Coleman will have a big first season to help minimize the loss of Diggs.
Buffalo also begins the season having lost its entire secondary from 2023. Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are all gone. In their place are 2022 sixth-rounder Christian Benford, free agent Taylor Rapp from the Rams, 2021 sixth-rounder Damar Hamlin and corner Rasual Douglas, who was acquired via a trade with the Packers.
2024 Bills Win Total Odds
According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Bills’ over/under for wins in 2024 sits at 10.5. The under is juiced to -150, while a successful wager on the over would net a bettor +122. The Bills are also +1500 to win the Super Bowl and have odds of +165 to win the AFC East.
2024 Bills Win Total Prediction
I struggled with this projection more than most. First and foremost, I don’t love that the odds for the under are juiced to -150. That’s an expensive price to pay to bet against a team that has won 11, 13, 11 and 13 games over their last four seasons, respectively. Plus, I don’t think the loss of Diggs will cripple Buffalo’s offense. As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills will move the ball consistently. Plus, with how effective the Bills were with their 2-tight end personnel a year ago, they might not be as explosive as they were with Diggs, but they will be efficient.
That said, I’m still taking the under. The bottom line is that this team lost its entire secondary. You can’t replace an entire unit like that in one offseason and expect to pick up where you left off. Plus, Von Miller isn’t the same player he was a year ago and all-everything linebacker Matt Milano is coming off a significant injury. The defense will likely be worse this season and even though I believe in Allen, the offense is in the midst of transition as well.
2024 Buffalo Bills NFL Regular Season Win Total Prediction: UNDER 10.5 (-150)