Packers vs. Commanders Prediction
The Green Bay Packers travel to Landover, MD to play the Commanders on Sunday afternoon when Week 7’s NFL Sunday slate begins at 1:00 PM ET.
Can the Commanders pull off the upset and cover the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs?
The Green Bay Packers are 3-3 through their first 6 games of 2022. Their best wins were over the Buccaneers and the Patriots. Their worst losses were to the Giants and Jets. The Packers are 2-4 ATS this year.
The Washington Commanders are 2-4 so far this season. Their wins came against the Jaguars and the Bears. Their worst defeats came against the Lions and Titans. The Commanders are 2-4 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
463 Green Bay Packers -4.5 at 464 Washington Commanders +4.5; O/U 41.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 23, 2022
FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Packers vs. Commanders Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public is slightly favoring the Commanders in this game. According to our numbers, 53% of public bets are on Washington +4.5. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so make sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
Green Bay Packers DFS Spin
The Green Bay Packers offense is averaging only 17.8 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL out of 32 teams. They will likely look to get back to basics here against a Commanders’ defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, a figure that ranks 21st in the NFL. Green Bay running back Aaron Jones only got 9 carries last week, but he should see at least 15 totes on Sunday. He might be a nice value play if the price is right.
For pass catchers, Green Bay wide receiver Randall Cobb will miss 2-4 weeks with an ankle injury. That means more targets for Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard. Lazard leads Green Bay in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and the 6’5” 227-pound Iowa State alum might see some red zone targets on Sunday.
Washington Commanders DFS Spin
Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken finger so he will be out for the foreseeable future. That means backup QB Taylor Heinicke will take the reins on Sunday for the Commanders. Because of who’s playing quarterback, Washington might not take as many downfield shots as they normally would.
I’d take a look at Commanders running back J.D. McKissic. McKissic is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He’s also second on the team in receptions (24) and third on the club in targets (33). Taylor Heinicke will probably be checking the ball down a lot on Sunday and McKissic could be the beneficiary of that.
Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel might be worth a look as a dart throw. Green Bay had two touchdowns scored against them on gadget plays last week, and Samuel is a gadgetplayer. Curtis Samuel leads Washington with 34 catches, and he also has 8 carries for 51 yards on the season. Washington might be tempted to dial up a trick play involving Curtis Samuel on Sunday.
Packers vs. Commanders Betting Trends
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an outright loss of more than 14 points.
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Washington is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an outright win.
Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game.
Packers vs. Commanders Prediction:
There’s no other way to slice it: the Green Bay Packers have been bad the past two weeks. They scored 2 points in the second half of their game against the Giants two weeks ago and 7 points in the second half of the Jets game last weekend. What’s worse, the defense looks uninspired and the special teams units allowed a blocked field goal and a blocked punt for a touchdown last weekend against the Jets. Green Bay was lucky to beat New England in Week 4 and they’ve lost the last two games outright. I don’t think they should be favored by more than a field goat over anyone, and that’s why I’m taking the Commanders and the points.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTION: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +4.5
