The Patriots upset the Bills in Foxborough earlier this season but will Buffalo have its revenge on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET? Better yet, will Buffalo cover as a 14-point home favorite in today’s Patriots vs. Bills matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
107 New England Patriots (+14) at 108 Buffalo Bills (-14); o/u 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 31, 2023
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Bills Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 51% of public bettors are currently backing the Patriots when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Hunter Henry (knee) is questionable for Week 17 against the Bills. Henry was on pace for an elite day versus the Chiefs in Week 15. He had six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, but a low hit from cornerback L’Jarius Sneed ended his day and also forced him to miss Week 16. He was limited in practice throughout this week. If he suits up, Henry will rank as a high-end TE2
Buffalo Bills DFS Spin
Stefon Diggs caught 5-of-8 targets for 29 yards in the Bills’ Week 16 win over the Chargers. Another subpar game for Diggs on the statsheet, but he made some crucial, tough catches in tight coverage on a Buffalo touchdown drive that put them up 21-13 in the third quarter and then two big catches on Buffalo’s game-winning drive.
The day could have been much bigger for Diggs too. On the first drive in the third quarter, Josh Allen was flushed from the pocket and rolled right and threw a deep bomb to Diggs across his body. Despite Diggs having a step on his defender, the ball was short and picked off. With defenses trying to take away the deep pass from Josh Allen, Diggs is left working underneath more than usual, which has limited his fantasy ceiling. However, New England runs a lot of man coverage, so Diggs could be in for a bigger day next week.
Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends
New England is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction:
Take the over. Bailey Zappe is now 4-2 as the Patriots’ starting quarterback the last two seasons. More importantly for today, the Patriots are averaging 21.8 points per game when Zappe starts. By comparison, New England averaged 16.8 points per game under Mac Jones, who was 8-17 as the team’s starter.
The total has also gone over in four out of New England’s last five games against Buffalo. The over is also 5-2 in the Patriots’ last seven conference games and has also cashed in five out of their last seven contests when listed as the underdog. On the other side, the over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last seven divisional games.
Patriots vs. Bills NFL Prediction: OVER 40.5
