Is 7.5 too much to lay with Denver in Sunday night’s Patriots vs. Broncos matchup at 8:15 p.m. ET? Or is there a better bet on the board when these two teams square off in prime time on national TV?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
469 Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at 470 Tampa Bay Bucs (+1.5); o/u 43
4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 24, 2023
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Broncos Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 56% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Patriots downgraded TE Hunter Henry (knee) to out for Week 16 against the Broncos. Henry managed just two limited sessions this week after injuring his knee on a late hit against the Chiefs. He ultimately failed to do enough to retake the field for the team’s Week 16 tilt with the Broncos. Expect Mike Gesicki to see a slight uptick in snap rate while Pharaoh Brown is a candidate to serve as the lead tight end in a plus matchup.
Denver Broncos DFS Spin
Russell Wilson completed 18-of-32 passes for 223 yards and one touchdown in the Broncos’ 42-17 loss to the Lions. It was an up-and-down day for Wilson and the Broncos, with the downs far outweighing the ups. Wilson lost a fumble on the team’s first drive and completed just 56.3 percent of his passes. Wilson had multiple completions for 20-plus yards and connected with Lil’Jordan Humphrey on a three-yard pass in the end zone for his lone touchdown pass of the day. Wilson would also punch in a one-yard touchdown on a QB sneak, but the day was largely forgettable for the now 7-7 Broncos. Wilson and the Broncos will get a challenging defensive matchup in Week 16 against the Patriots.
Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England’s last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver’s last 9 games
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction:
Take New England. The Patriots pulled off the upset two weeks ago in Pittsburgh and covered last Sunday as a 10.5-point home underdog versus Kansas City. Their offense still stinks as a whole, but at least they’re moving the ball better now than they were even less than a month ago. Their defense also continues to play well under Bill Belichick.
As for the Broncos, they still have playoff aspirations but they’re starting to backslide. They lost three weeks ago in Houston and were hammered last Sunday by the Lions in Detroit. Sean Payton has done a great job with Russell Wilson by keeping the reigns tight, but that also doesn’t mean they’re going to light up the scoreboard. I see this as a taught game throughout, one in which the Patriots stay within the number.
Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Prediction: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +7.5