Patriots vs. Browns Prediction & Odds
The New England Patriots head to Cleveland, OH to play the Browns on Sunday afternoon when Week 6’s NFL Sunday early slate kicks off at 1:00 PM ET.
Can the Patriots pull off the minor upset and cover the spread as 2.5-point road underdogs?
The New England Patriots are 2-3 through their first 5 games of 2022. They have wins over the Steelers and Lions but lost to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Packers. The Patriots are 2-2-1 ATS this year.
The Cleveland Browns are 2-3 so far this season. They beat the Panthers and Steelers but lost to the Jets, Falcons, and Chargers. The Browns are 2-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
257 New England Patriots +2.5 at 258 Cleveland Browns -2.5; o/u 43
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 16, 2022
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Patriots vs. Browns Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public is favoring the Patriots in this game. According to our numbers, 60% of public bets are on the Patriots +2.5. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so make sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
The star of the Patriots’ offense has been running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He leads the team in rushing yards with 372 and is averaging an efficient 5.5 yards per carry. Stevenson had a career day last week against Detroit, posting 161 rushing yards on 25 carries on the way to a Patriots blowout win. He might be in for some more work on Sunday as his fellow running back Damien Harris is questionable to play with a hamstring injury. If Pats starting QB Mac Jones is forced to miss another week, New England may be more apt to lean on the running game. Stevenson seems like a lock to get 15+ carries against a Cleveland defense that is 30th in opponent yards per rushing attempt at 5.3.
For receivers, Devante Parker is worth a look as a dart throw. Wide receivers Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor are both questionable for Sunday’s game, which could mean an increased target share for Parker.
Cleveland Browns DFS Spin
The Browns’ Nick Chubb continues to be one of the best running backs in the NFL. He’s second in the league in carries (98), first in rushing yards (597), and first in rushing touchdowns (7). Chubb has been the model of consistency as well. He’s run for at least 87 yards in every game this season, and he’s gaining 6.1 yards per rush attempt. He’s facing a Patriots defense that ranks 24th in opponent yards per rushing attempt at 4.8. Nick Chubb should be on your DFS radar every week and Sunday’s contest is no exception.
For Cleveland pass catchers, I’d take a look at wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. Cooper is a high-risk, high-reward play as he’s posted 3 games with at least 76 receiving yards and a touchdown and 2 games where he failed to top 20 receiving yards. He might be worth a dice roll on Sunday. David Njoku has a similar risk profile. He’s posted at least 5 grabs and 73 receiving yards in each of the past 3 games, but he failed to top 35 yards in the first two weeks of the year.
Patriots vs. Browns Betting Trends
New England is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC.
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record.
The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the Patriots and Browns.
The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between the Patriots and Browns.
Patriots vs. Browns Prediction:
Patriots’ starting quarterback Mac Jones is “making good improvement” according to New England head coach Bill Belichick. Jones practiced in a limited capacity this past week and is officially listed as questionable, but I don’t think he plays in this game on Sunday. That means it will be Patriots rookie Baily Zappe under center. The Patriots haven’t asked Zappe to do much and likely won’t again on Sunday, relying on Rhamondre Stevenson and the running game. But Cleveland traded for Falcons’ linebacker Deion Jones who had spent the first five weeks of the season on injured reserve. Jones was designated to return from injured reserve on Wednesday and is on track to play in Sunday’s game. I think he could make the difference and propel the Browns to a much-needed win by 3 points or more.
NFL WEEK 6 PREDICTION: CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5
