Will the home team cover in Sunday’s Patriots vs. Dolphins matchup from Miami? Or following its upset win over Buffalo, is New England the better bet as a road dog? Kickoff for this AFC East matchup is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
261 New England Patriots (+8.5) at 262 Miami Dolphins (-8.5); o/u 46.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 29, 2023
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Dolphins Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 65% of public bettors are currently backing the Dolphins when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Patriots listed LT Trent Brown (ankle/knee) as questionable for Week 8. That’s back-to-back weeks where Brown has been listed as questionable, but the veteran tackle has played in each of the Patriots’ last five games and shouldn’t be at real risk of missing Week 8. Brown, along with starting RT Vederian Lowe (ankle) are both listed as questionable, but Lowe was able to log limited practices each of the last two days. Starting left guard Cole Strange was removed from the injury report.
Miami Dolphins DFS Spin
Raheem Mostert (ankle) said he will play in Week 8 against the Patriots. Mostert missed Wednesday’s practice with what NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe described as “a little tweak” in his ankle. The veteran running back practiced each of the last two days and will be good to go against the Patriots. Mostert enjoyed a Week 2 breakout against the Patriots earlier this season when he rushed for 121 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. He’ll have low-end RB1 upside in Week 8.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games
The over/under has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
The Dolphins are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction:
Take New England. The Dolphins have won three straight home games against the Patriots and are averaging 47.7 points per game this season at Hard Rock Stadium. That said, Miami has not won four straight home games against New England since it took five straight from 1998-2002. Including playoffs, Bill Belichick also has the best cover percentage (.731, 19-7) and best outright record (.423, 11-15) when his teams were an underdog of seven or more points. Throw in a slew of injuries for the Dolphins and you have the makings for a closer game than most assume.
Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL Prediction: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +8.5