The New England Patriots head to Miami to face the Dolphins on Sunday when Week 12’s afternoon slate begins at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Can the Dolphins cover the 7.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Patriots vs. Dolphins betting prediction.
The New England Patriots are 3-8 straight up and 4-6-1 against the spread this year. Their best win came against Cincinnati, and their worst loss came against Jacksonville.
The Miami Dolphins are 4-6 straight up and 4-6 against the spread this season. Their best win came against the Rams, and their worst loss came against Tennessee.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup & Betting Odds
261 New England Patriots (+7.5) at 262 Miami Dolphins (-7.5); o/u 46.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 24, 2024
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: CBS
Patriots vs. Dolphins Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 56% of public bettors are currently backing the Dolphins when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
New England Patriots Daily Fantasy Spin
Patriots defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy (neck), linebacker Curtis Jacobs (head), and guard Cole Strange (knee) will all miss Sunday’s game against the Dolphins.
New England defensive tackle Christian Barmore (undisclosed), linebacker Sione Takitaki, defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (foot), defensive end Keion White (knee), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee), cornerback Christian Gonzalez (hip), safety Marte Mapu (neck), safety Kyle Dugger (ankle), and offensive tackle Vederian Lowe (shoulder) are all listed as questionable for Sunday’s road date with Miami.
Miami Dolphins Daily Fantasy Spin
Dolphins starting left tackle Terron Armstead (knee) and fullback Alec Ingold (calf) are both questionable for Sunday’s game. Second-round rookie Patrick Paul would likely slot in at left tackle if Armstead can’t play this weekend.
Miami cornerback Kendall Fuller (concussion) and linebacker Bradley Chubb (knee) have both been ruled out for Sunday’s home date with New England.
With Fuller out of commission, the Dolphins will likely turn to second-year defensive back Cam Smith to start at the left cornerback spot. Smith has 12 total tackles in 4 games of action for the Dolphins this year.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
New England is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against Miami.
New England is 6-9 ATS in division games since the start of the 2022 season.
Miami is 12-4 ATS in division games since the start of the 2022 season.
Miami is 11-8 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of the 2022 season.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Prediction:
Miami is playing better of late. After losing the first two games after the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa from injury, the Dolphins have won their last two games outright. They are 3-1 ATS in the aforementioned four-game stretch with Tagovailoa back at the helm. Perhaps more importantly, Miami has dominated New England of late.
The Dolphins are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against the Patriots. Miami has 5 wins by 7 points or more in that 10-game span. They’ve seemingly always played New England tough (even back when Tom Brady was the Pats QB) and are favored by more than a touchdown here. Miami was favored by 7.5 points at home against New England last season. The Dolphins won that game 31-17 and easily covered. I could see Sunday’s game following a similar script. I’m laying the points with Miami at home in this one.