Matthew Stafford SB Prop Predictions
We’re drawing closer to Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff between the Rams and Bengals, who will play for the Lombardi Trophy this weekend. What are the best plays when it comes to betting Matthew Stafford’s prop odds for Super Bowl Sunday?
Game Snapshot
101 Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. 102 Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); o/u 48.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 13, 2022
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
TV: NBC
Matthew Stafford Super Bowl Prop Odds
Player Passing Yards: o/u 281.5 (-110)
Player Passing Touchdowns: o/u 2.5 (+148)
Player Pass Completions: o/u 24.5 (-114)
Player Pass Attempts: o/u 36.5 (-114)
Player Longest Pass: o/u 39.5 (-122)
Passing Interceptions: o/u 0.5 (-172)
So what are the best bets when it comes to Stafford’s passing props this weekend? Let’s start off with the ones we can eliminate based on the value (or lackthereof).
Stafford has played 20 games this season including playoffs. He threw for over 2.5 touchdowns in only nine of those 20 games, which leaves us with a 45.0% conversion rate for the over and zero value in the under at -200 juice. Pass.
In those 20 games, Stafford also went over 24.5 completions in exactly 50% of those games. While he went over that number in three of his last five games, again, there’s just not enough value in either the over or under. It’s a similar story with his attempts, as he went over 36.5 attempts in 11 of his 20 games, which includes back-to-back postseason matchups against the 49ers and Bucs. That said, he’s gone over that number in only two of his last five games. Pass on both.
That leaves us with Stafford’s yards and interception props. While there’s not much value in laying -172 for Stafford to throw at least one interception on Sunday, I do love that play. He’s only thrown one interception this postseason, but it came in the Rams’ 20-17 victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and he should have thrown another had safety Jaquiski Tartt not dropped the pass. In his 20 games this season, Stafford has thrown at least one interception 12 times, cashing the over at a 60% rate. In the 10 games that the Rams faced an opponent with a winning record, Stafford threw at least one pick in six of those contests.
I also believe there’s some value in taking the over for his passing yards. In 12 of his 20 games this season, Stafford threw for over 281.5 yards (60.00%). He’s gone over that total in three of his last five games, including in the Rams’ back-to-back playoff victories against the 49ers and Bucs, respectively. When we zero in on the times the Rams faced a winning team this season, Stafford went over 281.5 passing yards in seven of those 10 matchups.
SUPER BOWL PROP PREDICTIONS: MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 281.5 PASS YARDS (-110) & OVER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (-170)
