Following his best game of the year, will Travis Kelce go off tonight against the Saints? Will Patrick Mahomes be tasked with throwing the ball a lot due to injuries to Kansas City’s offense? Is Chris Olave a good bet to go over in receptions? Check out our Saints vs. Chiefs Player Prop Predictions ahead of tonight’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5); o/u 43
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 7, 2024
TV: ESPN
Saints vs. Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: Mahomes over 33.5 Pass Attempts
With Isiah Pacheco on the shelf, the Chiefs have no running game. Andy Reid has always been a pass-happy play-caller but with Pacheco as his back, he’s been more balanced over the years. With Pacheco out, I expect Reid to lean heavily on Patrick Mahomes.
In Kansas City’s four games this season, Mahomes has averaged just 30.25 pass attempts. Only once has he attempted more than 30 passes, which came against the Falcons in Week 3.
That said, I fully believe tonight will be the night Reid lets it rip. If the Chiefs get behind, there’s even more reason to believe Mahomes could knock on the door of 40 attempts. Good thing we only need 34.
Saints vs. Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: Olave over 4.5 Receptions
You’ll pay more for this prop, but it’s worth the -146 juice. The Chiefs have been stingy when facing opponents’ No. 1 receiver. That said, New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has moved Olave around more in recent weeks, including the slot.
The Chiefs have allowed 53.7% of the receptions to receivers to come from the slot. That’s the third-highest percentage in the NFL. They’re only allowing 6.6 yards per target on those throws, which rank 14th, but we’re avoiding Olave’s receiving yards and instead taking the over on receptions.
After seeing only 8.3% of the targets in Week 1, Olave has garnered 40%, 26.1% and 27.8% of the looks in the Saints’ last three games according to Sharp Football.
Saints vs. Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: Kelce over 5.5 receptions
It’s time for the Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection to be rekindled. Kelce had his best game of the year versus the Chargers in Week 4, hauling in seven of nine targets for 89 yards. With Rice off the field, Kelce had 28.0% of the team targets and was targeted on 24.1% of his routes. Those were season highs.
The Saints also play a lot of man coverage (36.7%, 6th in the league). Kelce has been targeted 0n 20.0% of his routes with 2.93 yards per route versus man coverage this season. That compares to 16.5% against zone coverage with 0.82 yards per route.