The New Orleans Saints head to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday when Week 5’s afternoon slate begins at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Can the Patriots cover the 1-point spread as home favorites? Check out our Saints vs. Patriots betting prediction to see our winner.
The New Orleans Saints are 2-2 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread this year. Their best win came against the Titans, and their worst loss came against the Buccaneers.
The New England Patriots are 1-3 straight up on the year and 1-3 against the spread. Their only win came against the Jets, and their worst loss came against the Cowboys.
Saints vs. Patriots Matchup & Betting Odds
461 New Orleans Saints (+1) vs. 462 New England Patriots (-1); O/U 39
1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 8, 2023
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Saints vs. Patriots Public Betting Prediction
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Saints in this game. According to our numbers, 52% of public bets are on New Orleans +1. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so be sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
New Orleans Saints DFS Spin
Saints quarterback Derek Carr is nursing a shoulder injury, and was listed as questionable on the injury report, but it’s been reported that he’s likely to play against the Patriots on Sunday. Carr has thrown for 763 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in 4 games of action for New Orleans this season.
New Orleans starting tight end Juwan Johnson has been ruled out with a calf injury for Sunday’s game against New England. Johnson has 7 catches for 61 yards in three games for the Saints in 2023.
Starting Saints left guard Andrus Peat is questionable for this weekend’s game with a concussion, and his status is worth monitoring up to game time.
New England Patriots DFS Spin
One of New England’s starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez is out for the rest of the season with a torn labrum. Gonzalez was one of the better defensive rookies in the league through 4 games as he racked up 17 total tackles, 3 passes defended, a sack, and an interception for the Pats this season.
Matthew Judon was the Patriots’ starting weak-side linebacker, but he suffered a torn bicep tendon that required surgery, likely putting him out of commission until December. Judon leads the Patriots with 4 sacks this season.
Saints vs. Patriots Betting Trends
Saints QB Derek Carr is 5-8 ATS in the next game after his team scored fewer than 10 points the previous game.
The under is 4-0 in the Saints first four games of 2023.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen is 11-18-1 ATS against teams that are under .500 straight-up for the season.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.
11AM in Foxborough 🦉 pic.twitter.com/4GNoOP89KC
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 6, 2023
Saints vs. Patriots Prediction:
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring defensive struggle. Both New Orleans and New England rank in the bottom nine when it comes to yards per play. Both clubs rank in the top eight in opponent yards per play. The under of 39 is certainly worth a look, but I think taking the home team here is the better bet.
Pats quarterback Mac Jones was bad last week, but he’s in a prime spot to bounce back on Sunday. Jones is 12-7 straight up against teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous season, and the Saints missed the playoffs in 2022. What’s more, Mac Jones is 17-6 straight up when his defense allows 24 points or less. The Saints are only averaging 15.5 points per game, a figure that is tied for 25th in the NFL. In a slight contrarian play, I like the Pats to win this game outright at home by 2 points or more on Sunday.
