With Buffalo favored by 10 and the total sitting at 38.5, what are some of the better Steelers vs. Bills player prop predictions for Monday’s 4:30 p.m. ET matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
153 Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) at 154 Buffalo Bills (-10); o/u 38.5
4:30 p.m. ET, Monday, January 15, 2024
Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
TV: CBS
Steelers vs. Bills: Public Bettors Love Tomlin’s Underdog
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 63% of public bettors are currently backing the Steelers when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Predictions: Over Warren 3.5 Receptions
I’m assuming the reason why this number is so low is because of the weather. Nonetheless, there’s value in taking the over for Warren’s reception prop, which is currently 3.5 with plus odds (+114). He caught five passes against the Ravens in Week 18 and four passes in Seattle in Week 17. In his last five games, Warren has caught either four or five passes and with Buffalo expected to lead today as a 10-point favorite, the Steelers will need to throw in the second half.
Jaylen Warren over 3.5 Receptions (+114)
Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Predictions: Cook Over 84.5 Total Yards
Ever since Joe Brady took over play-calling duties in Buffalo, the Bills have found their running game and have featured James Cook more. Without T.J. Watt, the Steelers defense could struggle to contain Cook, who is a major threat to break one at any point. So why not take the over on his rushing total of 62.5? I’m hedging a little here, knowing that he could break off a long run either on the ground or after catching a screen pass. I don’t want to be left holding a losing under ticket on his rushing prop when he has close to 100 yards of total offense, most of which came through the air.
James Cook over 84.5 Total Yards (-114)
Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Predictions: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
I took a similar approach with David Montgomery in Sunday night’s Rams-Lions matchup, where I didn’t shy away from a value play just because I wasn’t getting plus odds. Montgomery was -130 to score an anytime touchdown, which I thought offered massive value with how the Lions utilize him at the goal line. Lo and behold, the Lions drove right down the field and scored on their first drive, capping it off with a goal line plunge from Montgomery. So again, similar idea here: Allen is tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL since Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the team’s play-caller. Buffalo has designed runs for him at a high rate so if they get close, I expect Allen’s number to be called again.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-125)