We kick off week 12 of the NFL season with an AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Pittsburgh heads to Cleveland following a big win last Sunday to move to 8-2 on the season. Cleveland has lost two straight and enter Thursday with a 2-8 record. They are currently 3.5 point home dogs and this Steelers vs. Browns matchup kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) o/u 37
8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 21, 2024
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
TV: AMAZON
Public Betting: Public Bettors Backing Steelers
As of this writing, our NFL Public Betting page shows that 80% of bets are on Pittsburgh. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers pulled off a 18-16 win over the Ravens on Sunday. Pittsburgh was unable to find the end zone in this matchup. Russell Wilson had his worst game with the Steelers completing 23 of 36 passes for 205 yards and an interception. Najee Harris had 18 carries for 63 yards and Jaylen Warren had 9 carries for 41 yards. George Pickens had 8 receptions for 89 yards. Chris Boswell scored all the points for the team going a perfect 6/6 on field goals with a long of 57. The defense came up big with an interception, two fumble recoveries, and a big 2 pt conversion stop.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns lost their 2nd straight and 8th total game of the season in a 35-14 loss to the Saints on Sunday. Jameis Winston completed 30 of 46 pass attempts for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nick Chubb managed 50 yards on 11 carries. Jerry Jeudy went off for 6 receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown. Dustin Hopkins was 0-2 with misses from 51 yards and 27 yards out. The defense had a fumble recovery and an interception on Taysom Hill, however Hill also ran for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Steelers vs. Browns Betting Trends
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
The OVER is 5-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home against Pittsburgh
The UNDER is 8-3 in Cleveland’s last 11 home games against Pittsburgh
Steelers vs. Browns Game Notes:
Before we get into this one there are two points that you should know:
- The weather conditions in Cleveland tomorrow night are not looking good. The Weather Channel is predicting temps in the 30’s, winds in the 25-35 mph range, and 100% chance of rain. Weather Bug is currently showing a 60% chance of heavy snow at kick off.
- This one has a few parts to it. The Steelers have never won a road, divisional TNF game. 0-7 all time and 0-5 under head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is 2-8 on the road on TNF. The Steelers have only won once in Cleveland since 2017.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
That being said, I like the Steelers to cover the 3.5 points on Thursday night. I am looking at turnovers, rushing, and field goal kicking for this game.
The Steelers have a turnover differential of +11 on the season while the Browns are at a -5. The Steelers have 8 fumble recoveries and have lost 5 fumbles. The Browns have 5 fumble recoveries and have lost 4 fumbles. If you’ve ever watched the Steelers you know T.J. Watt loves to punch at the ball and is quite good at forcing it out.
Both teams haven’t been great running the ball this season, with each averaging just 4 yards per carry. Nick Chubb since his return to the field is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has 1 touchdown. However, defensively, the Steelers are allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt which is ranked 5th in the league while the Browns are allowing 4.8 yards per rush attempt which is 27th. The Browns have already ruled out left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. The Steelers not only have Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren but maybe Justin Fields gets into the mix as well?
As far as kicking goes, Chris Boswell has been incredible, making 29-30 field goals with the one miss being from 62 yards out. He is also a perfect 20-20 on extra points. Dustin Hopkins on the other hand is 14-20 on field goals, and 10-12 on extra points. He just missed 2 field goals on Sunday in a dome.
Who knows how bad the weather will really be as obviously 100% chance of rain and a 60% chance of heavy snow are two pretty different things but either way we should be looking at a pretty sloppy AFC North football game. For the reasons above I will be rolling with the Steelers to pick up a huge win and to cover the spread.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction: Steelers -3.5
Edit: Additional Game Notes: Russell Wilson is 9-4 in TNF along with a 4-2 record on the road against divisional opponents per yahoo sports. Jameis Winston has never played in an NFL football game with temperatures under 40 degrees, per Michael Lombardi.