Super Bowl Week 5 Odds & Picks
Hard as it is to believe, every NFL team has already played a quarter of their regular-season schedule. Well, with the except for two: Tampa Bay and Miami, who had their Week 1 game moved to Week 11 due to Hurricane Irma.
Super Bowl LII, held in Minneapolis on the first Sunday of February, is quickly approaching. Which means now’s the time to check out the updated 2018 Super Bowl odds provided by MyBookie lead bookmaker Dave Strauss.
We asked Dave his thoughts on the state of the top NFL teams that could contend for this year’s Lombari Trophy.
“Although the AFC East standings coming into Week 5 are surprising, they’re not completely shocking. We expect to see Belichick and the Patriots squad form up throughout the season and make a strong showing the the coming weeks,” says Strauss, “the Patriots are still leading the pack of some very interesting teams. It’s a long season and we’re just getting started.”
We’ve updated our Super Bowl Odds for the 4 most interesting teams in the running to make it to Super Bowl 52.
New England Patriots (+350)
It might be surprising to some that the Pats are still the NFL betting favorites to repeat considering they are 2-2.
They’re not even leading the AFC East and are tied with the New York Freaking Jets!
But, The New England offense has been Super Bowl-worthy. Tom Brady leads the NFL with 1,399 passing yards, and ties for the league lead with 10 passing touchdowns. He also ranks second in the NFL with a 116.6 passer rating.
Brady hasn’t thrown an interception to date this season. He’s the first player in league history to pass for at least 1,000 yards with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions through his team’s first four games in two different seasons (2015).
However, Bill Belichick’s defense has been a major problem. The Pats have given up the most yards per pass attempt and per game. And, they’ve even surrendered the league’s worst opponent passer rating.
New England’s secondary has had an unusual number of communication breakdowns and mental errors. Newcomer Stephon Gilmore has been a major bust.
Oddsmakers clearly assume the Patriots will get things fixed. Since 1990, 121 teams (37.3%) have made it to the postseason after starting the season 2-2 or worse.
There were four such teams – Detroit (1-3), Miami (1-3), Kansas City (2-2) and the New York Giants (2-2) – last season, including the Chiefs who won the AFC West.
Green Bay Packers (+600)
The Packers are tied for the NFC North lead with Detroit at 3-1, and Green Bay is the favorite in the NFC.
Teams like Seattle and Atlanta have had their struggles so far. It’s the third consecutive year and the eighth time since 2000 that they have won at least three of their first four games.
The Packers have won nine of their last 10 regular-season games overall. Led by MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are No. 1 in red-zone efficiency this season (11 TDs on 14 drives, 78.6 percent).
October is usually a good month for the Cheeseheads, too. Dating to 2006, the Packers (30-11, .732) hold the second-best winning percentage in the month of October behind the Patriots (39-8, .830).
Green Bay has won 21 of its last 25 games played in the month of October.
Dating to 2008, Rodgers leads the NFL (min. 300 pass attempts) in passer rating (108.0), passing touchdowns (78) and touchdown percentage (6.8) in the month of October, while ranking No. 3 in passing yards (9,575).
Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
This is the best team in the NFL right now and is the only unbeaten team at 4-0. Of course, the Chiefs went to New England in Week 1 and shocked the Patriots.
Which means that Kansas City would have a potential tiebreaker vs. the Patriots in terms of home-field advantage in the playoffs. Right now,, the Chiefs have a three-game lead over New England in that regard.
Since 1990, when the current 12-team playoff format was adopted, 64 of the previous 79 teams (81 percent) to start 4-0 have made the playoffs.
However, nothing is a given as the two teams to start 4-0 in 2016 – Denver and Minnesota – both missed the postseason.
Kansas City rookie running back Kareem Hunt is the fourth rookie to record at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first four games. Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yards (502) and scrimmage yards (659) and ranks second in total touchdowns (six).
He is your NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year right now and an MVP candidate – as is QB Alex Smith.
Los Angeles Rams (+3300)
The Rams are arguably the biggest surprises in the NFL at 3-1. They’re also leading the league in offense after finishing last in scoring in 2016.
Sean McVay has to be the early NFL Coach of the Year Favorite.
Andrew Whitworth has been great at left tackles, making The Rams’ offensive better. They’ve also made great use of the receiving corps, Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
But, most importantly, their scheme under McVay is light-years ahead of what Jeff Fisher’s staff previously implemented.
After QB Jared Goff went 0-7 as a starter last season, the No. 1 pick quarterback rating has almost doubled to 112.2.
Tailback Todd Gurley has already scored more touchdowns this season (7 so far) than he did in all of last season.
Oh, and the running back is also the Rams’ leading receiver with 20 catches for 234 yards and three touchdowns.
Expert Predictions to win Super Bowl LII
I like a Kansas City vs Green Bay for Super Bowl as things currently stand. The Chiefs haven’t been to the big game since beating the Vikings 23-7 in SB IV. So expect Packers to win it.
Be sure to stay up-to-date and keep track of those Super Bowl odds as the regular-season schedule keeps rolling out.