Super Bowl 2007 Trends
Superbowl trends? Oh, how a year just passes us by. At times it seems like just last week that Bill Cowher and his Steelers defied all the experts predictions in winning Super Bowl XL as a Wild Card team.
So what’s in store, or what can we expect from previous Super Bowl results in helping us predict this year’s winner? Below are some general "performance trends" which may help you decide.
Favorites in the Super Bowl are 28-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 20-17-3.
The SU winner is 32-5-3 ATS in the 40 previous Super Bowls, but two of the losses have occurred in the last four years.
The NFC holds a 21-19 SU and 20-17-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in three of the last four Super Bowls.
The team with the better record going into the game is 27-10 SU. (note: on three occasions the teams had identical won-loss records
Totals bettors should note that there has been an average of 45.675 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl. In ten domed Super Bowl games, the total has averaged 46.8 points per game. Nine of the last 14 games have gone ‘Over’ the total, while three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went ‘Under’ the total.
What about some other not so known trends? Well, the team that wins the game SU owns a 29-11 ATS first half mark. The team that wins the game ATS owns a 31-6-3 ATS mark in the first half. The first half favorite is 21-19 ATS in the 40 previous Super Bowls. Over 53% of the total points are scored in the second half of the game.
Bettors looking to tease the line should know that the underdog owns a 23-16-1 ATS 6-point Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls. The favorite is 29-11 ATS in 6-point Teaser plays.
Finally, there are plenty of other options out there where the books would love to grab your action. Proposition wagers are becoming ever more popular as the years pass and these bets offer the books their greatest percentage of profit. Super Bowl Sunday will witness hundreds of proposition wagers that will be available to a bettor, ranging from winning point margin, player statistics, even right through to who wins the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the odds are long for a reason. Still, it’s fun to try and predict some of these markets, and they add a whole new dimension to watching the big game. Here are some thoughts on a few of my personal favorite proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well-known favorite to proposition bettors. The last 11 players to earn this title include Roethlisberger, L.J. Smith, Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won’t find many of these names among the league’s all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the reward is worth it. Often, some key contributors can have odds of +800 or more.
Team to score first: In 27 of the 40 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game.
Coin toss: Now then, did the odds say take “Heads”, or was it “Tails”? Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.
Predicted Margin of Victory: After reading all this, you should by now be able to easily predict which team is going to win the game, right? Well, add some spice to it by picking a victory margin from a range of points bracketed together.
If you still haven’t found which side to play, statistical performance’s can be huge in any football game, but it is even more critical in the Super Bowl. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU and ATS. The following trends will demonstrate how important these statistical elements are.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 33-7 SU and 29-8-3 ATS.
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 35-5 SU and 30-7-3 ATS.
Teams that turn the ball over the least have won 38 of 40 SU and covered the number 35 times. In fact, the last time a team overcame a TO disadvantage was in SB XIV, when Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 30-10 SU and 28-9-3 ATS.
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. However, New England qualified in both 2004 and 2005 and failed to cover either game.
Teams that win all four categories are 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS. Ironically, the only ATS loss occurred back in 2005 in Philadelphia ’s ATS win, citing further evidence that the Eagles covering the spread defied all logic.
By: Michael Cash – theSpread.com – Email Us
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