Will an ankle injury suffered last week in Cleveland limit Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on Sunday versus the Texans? Will Kansas City’s run defense stifle Houston running back Joe Mixon? Read on for our Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Patrick Mahomes under 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Mahomes was forced to exit last week’s win in Cleveland due to an ankle injury. While pundits speculated earlier in the week whether Mahomes would or should play today, it appears that the Chiefs will have their star quarterback under center when they host the Texans. How effective he will be on the injured ankle, however, is another question.
The Chiefs have had issues protecting Mahomes this season. This matchup does Kansas City’s offensive line zero favors. Houston is fourth in the NFL in sack rate (8.7%) and according to Sharp Football, the Texans average 6.1 quarterback hits per game (9th). Far be it for me to tell Andy Reid how to run his offense, but I wonder if leaning on the ground game makes sense.
Either way, Mahomes fell under his passing yards total (235.5) last week in Cleveland when he threw for only 159 yards. Passing for just 210 yards the week before, Mahomes also fell under his 246.5-yard total versus the Chargers. I don’t see how he eclipses 230.5 passing yards today playing on a bad ankle.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Joe Mixon under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Mixon rushed 12 times for just 23 yards in the Texans’ victory over the Dolphins last Sunday. While he appeared to avoid significant injury, he also left the game at one point because of his ankle. He did return to close the game out, but the injury is worth monitoring heading into today’s matchup with the Chiefs.
Regardless, I don’t see Mixon doing a lot of damage today against a stout Kansas City run defense. Mixon has chewed up bad defenses like the Jaguars in recent weeks (101 rushing yards), but has struggled when facing a unit with a pulse. For example, he rushed for only 23 yards versus Miami last week and 22 yards against Tennessee on November 24. He has gone under his rushing total in three of his last five games.
The Chiefs have allowed 3.7 yards per carry to running backs this season, which ranks second in the NFL. They have a 66.1% success rating against running back runs, which ranks fifth. It’ll be tough sledding today for Mixon.
Texans vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Xavier Worthy over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
While I don’t see Mahomes having a big day passing, this number is too good to pass up. Over his past five games, Worthy has a team-high 248 receiving yards. He averages 4.8 catches for 49.6 yards per game, which at least four catches in all five games. He caught a season-high six passes last week against the Browns and finished with five catches against the Chargers and Raiders, respectively, over the past few weeks.
Worthy’s 35 targets over the past five games is second on the Chiefs behind only tight end Travis Kelce’s 39. Similar to Rashee Rice a year ago, it appears as though Kansas City is starting to ramp up its rookie receiver’s usage.
NFL Same Game Parlay Odds: +612 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
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