Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction & Odds
The Houston Texans head to Miami Gardens to face the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon when Week 12’s NFL afternoon slate begins at 1:00 PM ET. Can the Texans cover the spread as 14-point road underdogs?
The Houston Texans are 1-8-1 through their first 10 games of 2022. Their only win came over Jaguars. Their worst losses came against the Broncos and the Raiders. The Texans are 4-5-1 ATS this year.
The Miami Dolphins are 7-3 so far this season. Their best wins came against the Ravens and the Bills. Their worst losses came against the Bengals and the Jets. The Dolphins are 5-5 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
261 Houston Texans (+14) at 262 Miami Dolphins (-14); O/U 47
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 27, 2022
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Texans vs. Dolphins Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Dolphins in this game. According to our numbers, 75% of public bets are on Miami -14. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so make sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
Houston Texans DFS Spin
The Houston Texans have benched starting quarterback Davis Mills in favor of backup QB Kyle Allen. Allen is a fourth-year player who has a record of 7-10 as a starter and a career touchdown pass-to-interception ratio of 24-17. Allen might be an upgrade over Davis Mills at quarterback meaning Texans pass catchers like Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and Chris Moore might see a slight bump in value, particularly if Houston is trailing early in this game and needs to catch up.
You could also deploy Texans running back Dameon Pierce, who’s due for a bounce-back game after only running for 8 yards on 10 carries against the Commanders last week. Pierce is an especially attractive option against Miami’s middling run defense that ranks 20th in the NFL in opponent yards per rushing attempt. Pierce should be in line for 15+ carries this weekend and should provide some value as a volume play.
Miami Dolphins DFS Spin
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert was limited at practice Friday and is officially listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest with a knee injury. Because of Mostert’s injury status, the Miami running back you want for DFS purposes is Jeff Wilson Jr. Wilson had 17 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown in the Dolphins’ blowout win over the Browns two weeks ago, and he seems to have usurped Mostert as the feature back for Miami. If the Dolphins get a lead in this game, they’re likely to pound the rock and run the clock, and Jeff Wilson could be the beneficiary of that.
Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill is leading the NFL in receptions (81), receiving yards (1,148), and catches of 20 yards or more (20). Hill only recorded 44 receiving yards last week but he should be in for a big day against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt.
Texans vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Houston and Miami.
Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction:
The Miami Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They rank in the top six in the NFL in yards per play, points per play, punts per offensive score, and offensive touchdowns per game. They have still yet to lose a game that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished. I don’t think Houston has any reason to even try to win any of their remaining games with multiple potential franchise quarterbacks (C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young) likely entering their names into the 2023 NFL Draft. For those reasons, I’ll lay the points with Miami.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: MIAMI DOLPHINS -14
