Texans vs. Fins Pick
The Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins put their slim playoff hopes on the line when they battle at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Texans beat the Rams 16-13 as a 14-point favorite in Week 15, while the combined score fell under the posted total of 43.5 points. Matt Schaub threw for 367 yards with a touchdown for Houston, while wideout Andre Johnson caught night passes for 196 yards in the victory.
The Dolphins lost to the Titans 27-24 in overtime as a 5-point underdog in Week 15, while the combined score went over the posted total of 43 points. Chad Henne threw for 349 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Miami, while Ricky Williams rushed for 80 yards and a TD on 19 carries.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Dolphins 3-point favorites over the Texans in Week 16. The over/under total for this game has been set at 45 points.
Houston is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five games, while Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The over has also hit in five of Miami’s last six games at home.
Our free pick prediction for this game is the Dolphins –3 and the over 45. The Texans could be without tackle Duane Brown and linebacker Brian Cushing, who both missed practice this week due to injuries. If they can’t play, those are two key pieces that Houston will sorely miss.
The Texans are allowing over 20 points per game, while the Dolphins are surrendering close to 24 PPG. Both of these teams can score, which is why we think the over will hit in a shootout. But we also think Miami’s running game will eventually seize control of the game and the Dolphins will pull away in the fourth quarter.
Our NFL Week 16 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS –3 and OVER 45.
Texans vs. Dolphins Current Odds
111 Houston Texans +3 Over 45
112 Miami Dolphins –3 Under 45
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
HOUSTON
[RB] 08/23/2009 – Jeremiah Johnson IR ( Shoulder )
[OG] 09/21/2009 – Chester Pitts IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/01/2009 – Chaun Thompson IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/06/2009 – Khary Campbell IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/03/2009 – Owen Daniels IR ( Knee )
[S] 11/25/2009 – Eugene Wilson IR ( Toe )
[CB] 11/26/2009 – Antwaun Molden IR ( Quad )
[RB] 12/09/2009 – Steve Slaton IR ( Neck )
[TE] 12/14/2009 – Anthony Hill IR ( Knee )
[OT] 12/20/2009 – Duane Brown injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
MIAMI
[QB] 09/28/2009 – Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 – Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/20/2009 – Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/19/2009 – Ronnie Brown IR ( Foot )
[DT] 11/23/2009 – Jason Ferguson out for season ( Quad )
[DE] 12/20/2009 – Lionel Dotson "?" Sunday vs. Houston ( Ankle )
Posted: 12/27/09 7:20AM ET