The upstart Texans are listed as slight dogs in Atlanta on Sunday, where they’ll take on the Falcons at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will Houston pull off the upset? Check out our Texans vs. Falcons Week 5 NFL prediction!
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
453 Houston Texans (+2) at 454 Atlanta Falcons (-2); o/u 41.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 8, 2023
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
TV: FOX
Texans vs. Falcons Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 54% of public bettors are currently backing the Texans when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Houston Texans DFS Spin
Texans listed Laremy Tunsil (knee) as questionable for Week 5 against the Falcons. A questionable designation is an upgrade for Tunsil who was ruled out last Friday for Week 4’s contest against the Steelers. Tunsil is one of several injured players along the Texans’ offensive line, and hasn’t played since Week 1 against the Ravens. His return will be a welcomed one by C.J. Stroud, who has stood tall through four weeks despite a decimated line.
Atlanta Falcons DFS Spin
AtlantaFalcons.com’s Scott Bair believes Falcons head coach Arthur Smith won’t have a “quick hook” with Desmond Ridder. Ridder has been among the worst starting quarterbacks through four weeks. He has three touchdowns and three picks, and the league’s third lowest completion rate over expected. Only Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones have a lower EPA per drop back than Ridder. “Pulling him for good in Week 5 would be surprising, and maybe a little hasty, if there’s a commitment to developing Ridder for the long-term,” Bair said, adding that he “could see a scenario where Ridder struggles and Taylor Heinicke would get called in from the bullpen to give the Falcons a spark in a particular game.” Heinicke’s willingness to throw into tight windows could probably lead to more production for Drake London and Kyle Pitts, neither of whom is fantasy relevant with Ridder under center.
Texans vs. Falcons Betting Trends
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The Texans are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 10 games
Texans vs. Falcons Prediction:
I’m taking Houston. Ridder’s 12 Total QBR over the last two weeks is the worst of any quarterback with multiple starts over that span. He has been thoroughly outplayed by Texans’ rookie signal-caller C.J. Stroud, who has thrown zero interceptions in his first 151 pass attempts. That’s the third-most pass attempts without an interception to begin an NFL career in league history. His 1,212 passing yards are also second-most through four career games all-time.
The key to beating the Falcons is stopping the run. The Lions did so and they held Atlanta to six points in Week 3. The Jaguars accomplished the feat last Sunday in London and held the Falcons to a whopping seven points. I expect Houston to use a similar formula to beat Atlanta outright on Sunday.
Texans vs. Falcons NFL Prediction: Houston Texans +115