The Texans vs. Jets Thursday Night Football matchup will kick off Week 9 in the NFL tonight at 8:20 p.m. ET. Read ahead for our same game parlay prediction for tonight’s contest.
Texans vs. Jets Parlay Leg 1: Texans 1st Half Winner (3-Way)
This prop is +125 at Fanduel Sportsbook but the catch is that the Texans have to be up at halftime. If the game is tied of the Jets are ahead after two quarters, then this parlay is sunk.
No worries: The Texans have led at the half in seven of their eight games this season. That’s the most in the NFL. Losing receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs is certainly a blow to Houston’s passing attack, but C.J. Stroud was already in the midst of a sophomore slump. The passing game was barely clicking before Collins went out and it’s unlikely to fire on all cylinders without Diggs.
That said, sometimes less is more. Stroud worked wonders with the receiving corps he had a year ago and that cast was, at times, led by Tank Dell. The second year pro has taken a backseat in the offense thanks to the arrival of Diggs, but now Dell can shine. Thanks to a healthy Joe Mixon, the Texans also have a better rushing attack to lean on this season. They’ll be fine.
As for the Jets, they’re 4-4 on the moneyline in the first half this season and two of those victories came in their last two games. That said, after losing to the Patriots last week, this is a team that appears ready to give up. I wouldn’t be shocked if they came out flat tonight.
Texans vs. Jets Parlay Leg 2: Joe Mixon Any Time Touchdown (-145)
The odds for this prop jumped from -125 to -145 while I was writing this piece. That frustrates me, but it’s also an indication that I was on the right track. Mixon was the workhorse last Sunday, turning 29 touches into 134 yards and another score versus the Colts. Over the past two games, he’s racked up 90% and 93.6% of the backfield touches. He’s handled 33, 15, 27 and 29 touches over his last four complete games. He’s running hard – much harder than the previous few years in Cincinnati. He looks rejuvenated playing for the Texans. I imagine the Texans will lean on Mixon heavily following the injuries to Collins and Diggs.
The Jets run defense has suffered since the team fired Robert Saleh as their head coach. They limited Rhamondre Stevenson to 65 yards on 23 touches on Sunday, but Stevenson found the end zone twice. The Jets allowed 161 yards and a touchdown to the Steelers backfield in Week 7 and 186 yards to the Bills backfield and Buffalo didn’t even have James Cook for that Week 6 matchup.
Texans vs. Jets Parlay Leg 3: Dalton Schultz over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Dell only had four catches for 35 yards on Sunday, although he did manage to find the end zone for the second time in three weeks. He was also targeted on 25% of his routes and emerges as the team’s No. 1 receiver.
That said, while Dell receives the largest boost with Collins and Diggs out, he doesn’t have the best matchup tonight. The Jets have allowed a league-low 48.8% catch rate to outside receivers. The targets might be there early for Dell, but C.J. Stroud could be forced to look elsewhere.
This is where Schultz comes into the frame. The tight end is coming off a season-high 52 yards on Sunday, hauling in four of six targets in the passing game. He’s been targeted on 17.5% of his routes with Collins off the field, compared to the 12.7% rate he saw when Collins was healthy. The Jets have also been average defending tight ends, so the matchup is better for Schultz than Dell.
Same Game Parlay:
Houston Texans 1st Half Winner (3-Way)
Joe Mixon Any Time Touchdown
Dalton Schultz over 40.5 Receiving Yards
The odds for this prop are +458.
