A playoff berth – if not a division title – will be on the line in Saturday night’s Texans vs. Colts AFC South clash at 8:15 p.m. ET. Will Indianapolis pull off the small upset as a home dog? Or is Houston the better bet tonight?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
469 Houston Texans (-1.5) at 470 Indianapolis Colts (+1.5); o/u 47.5
8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 6, 2024
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Texas vs. Colts Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 57% of public bettors are currently backing the Texans when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Houston Texans DFS Spin
Texans EDGE Will Anderson (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday’s practice. Anderson was listed as a non-participant for the second straight day this week. The rookie edge rusher joins Maliek Collins (hip), Jonathan Greenard (ankle), and Sheldon Rankins (ankle) as non-participants repeat non-participants on Wednesday. The defensive group will have a chance to practice later in the week as the Texans gear up for a Saturday matchup against the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts DFS Spin
NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports Zack Moss (forearm) is expected to play in Week 18 against the Texans. Moss has missed two games because of the forearm injury. He was most recently serving as the Colts’ starting running back because of an injury to Jonathan Taylor. The last time both backs were active, Taylor out-carried Moss 15-8. A similar split is likely for Week 18, putting Taylor at the top of the RB2 ranks while keeping Moss alive as a FLEX option but nothing more.
Texas vs. Colts Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston’s last 14 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The over/under has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games at home
The over/under has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games
Texas vs. Colts Prediction:
Take Houston. The Colts have allowed the third-highest completion percentage on throws of 20-plus yards downfield. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud owns the second-highest QBR (99.0), the third highest completion percentage (57.1%) and five touchdown passes with zero interceptions on the year. He should carve up an Indianapolis defense that hasn’t been good from the outset.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor has five straight games with a touchdown, which is tied for the second longest streak of his career (he had 11 straight in 2021). He’s scored seven touchdowns and averaged 141.2 scrimmage yards per game in five career games versus Houston.
However, the Texans are allowing 3.3 yards per rush this season. That’s the second lowest mark in the NFL. They’re holding opponents to just 1.7 yards before contact per rush, which is the best in the NFL. If they bottle up Taylor, which I believe they will, the Colts will have a difficult time pulling off the small upset as a home dog tonight.
Texas vs. Colts NFL Prediction: HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5