Looking for one of the better Super Bowl LVIII Prop bets centered on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes? We’ve got one that, at least based on recent history, has cashed at over an 85% clip.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
101 San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. 102 Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5); o/u 47.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 11, 2024
Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
TV: CBS
49ers vs. Chiefs: Public Bettors Hammering Kansas City
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 70% of public bettors are currently backing the Lions when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Mahomes Nearly Perfect in First Half of AFC Title
Patrick Mahomes completed 30-of-39 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ 17-10, AFC Championship Game victory over the Ravens, adding six carries for 15 yards. And with that, Mahomes and the Chiefs advance to their fourth Super Bowl in five years.
The Chiefs, of course, have appeared in the AFC Championship Game all six seasons Mahomes has been starter. Sunday was the first time the game occurred away from Arrowhead Stadium, but Mahomes had all the answers in the first half as the Chiefs built up what would prove to be an insurmountable 17-7 lead.
Only three points were scored after the break. As was the case in the Divisional Round, mistakes by Mahomes’ supporting cast left some meat on the bone — these were more of the administrative than “drops” variety — but the defense was simply too good for the opposition to mount a credible comeback. Mahomes will go for ring No. 3 total and his second against the 49ers on Sunday.
49ers vs. Chiefs Betting Trends: Under Hot in SF Playoff Games
Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
Under is 11-3 in 49ers last 14 playoff games
49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction
Take the over on Mahomes’ pass attempts in Super Bowl LVIII, which currently sits at 36.5. The future Hall of Famer has recorded 37-plus pass attempts in six out of his last seven games overall, averaging 39.4 per game over that span. He’s also recorded at least 37 pass attempts in seven out of his last eight games when the Chiefs are an underdog, with an average of 39.0 per game.
Worried about San Francisco’s defense? Don’t be, especially not with the way the Niners defense performed in their two playoff games last month. Nevertheless, Mahomes has recorded at least 37 pass attempts in eight out of his last nine games against a top-10 defense, averaging a whopping 43.4 attempts per game in that scenario.
Finally, he’s recorded 37-plus pass attempts in eight out of his last 10 playoff games, in eight out of his last 10 games after a win and in six out of his last eight games following a KC cover.
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Prediction: Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 Pass Attempts