Week 8 in the NFL kicks off at SoFi Stadium in L.A. on Thursday night when the Rams host the Vikings at 8:15 p.m. ET. Look for angles for this Vikings vs. Rams matchup? Here are my three favorite plays.
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
I know home teams have had an advantage on Thursday night in the NFL, but this line is disrespectful. Only the Commanders (+66), Bills (+63) and Lions (+62) have a better point differential than Minnesota’s +61. For comparison, the Rams are -40 in point differential, so I don’t understand why this number is only a field goal.
The Rams could get Cooper Kupp back from injury tonight. Great. He could have a big night in his return but last time I checked, he doesn’t play defense. The Rams held the Raiders to 15 points last Sunday but Las Vegas has one of the worst offenses in football. When they’ve played a team with a pulse, the Rams haven’t been great defensively. They allowed 24 points to the Packers, 24 points to the Bears, 24 points to the 49ers, 41 points to the Cardinals and 26 points to the Lions.
The Rams also can’t stop the run, which is why I like…
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction: Aaron Jones over 100.5 Total Yards (-114)
Jones didn’t have restrictions last Sunday after exiting before the team’s bye with a hamstring injury. He finished with 116 total yards, which included a 34-yard touchdown run. That was his first rushing touchdown since Week 1, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones reach pay dirt tonight.
The Rams have allowed 152.8 yards per game to running backs, which is 25th in the NFL. That’s why I chose Jones’ Rushing + Receiving Yards prop instead of just rushing. I don’t anticipate the Vikings trailing in this game but if they do, Jones is active in the passing game so we’re covered either way.
To pile more dirt on Los Angeles, the Rams have also allowed 18.1 rushing points per game (28th) to running backs. They surrendered 123 yards to Alexander Mattison last Sunday and he’s not the back that Jones is for Minnesota.
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction: Kyren Williams under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
There’s a couple of things working against Williams tonight. First is game script. I anticipate the Vikings building a lead in the first half. If I’m right, the Rams could turn pass-happy in the second half, leaving Williams with too few carries in order to cash the over on his rushing yards prop.
Another thing working against Williams is Minnesota’s run defense. The Vikings had their hands full with the Lions last week, but they’re still allowing just 4.28 yards per carry to opposing backs this season. That ranks a respectable 13th in the league.
Finally, if you have Williams on your fantasy team, you’ve been thrilled with his touchdown production, as he’s reached the end zone in every game this season. That said, he’s only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 34th among backs with 50 or more attempts. He has a run of 10 or more yards 5.2% of his rushes, which ranks 40th in the league.
Thus, while Williams has a nose for the end zone, which is important, he hasn’t been an efficient runner. I think Minnesota holds him in check tonight.
