Soccer is known as the global game for good reason, with most nations now boasting a competitive league. However, not all national leagues are created equal. Over time, certain competitions have risen to prominence; La Liga in Spain, Bundesliga in Germany, Serie A in Italy, and Ligue 1 in France take a seat at the top table, but nudging above them all is the English Premier League.
One of the most watched football competitions on the planet, the English Premier League is also one of the most popular with punters. Ahead of the 2024/25 kick-off, football betting fans are flocking to seek out the Best Betting sign up offers ahead of what promises to be another thrilling campaign. With that in mind, we now present a guide to betting on this titan of the sporting world.
Understanding the Basics
Types of Bets:
The 21st century has witnessed an explosion in football betting, with punters now having an overwhelming menu of betting options. Navigating to an upcoming Premier League fixture will often reveal over 100 betting markets, but the following remain the most popular.
- Match Outcome (1X2): This is the most straightforward bet where you predict whether the home team (1) will win, the match will end in a draw (X), or the away team (2) will win.
- Over/Under Goals: Here, you bet on the total number of goals scored in a match, with options like over or under 2.5 goals.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): You wager on whether both teams will score at least one goal during the match.
- Correct Score: Predict the exact final score of a match. This bet is more challenging but offers higher odds.
- First Goal-Scorer: Predict which player will score the first goal in the match. Last goal-scorer and anytime goal-scorer odds are also available.
- Accumulators: Combine multiple selections into one bet for a bigger payout. All selections must win for the bet to succeed. Look out for Bet Builders, which allow you to combine numerous events from the same game.
Research and Analysis
As with any betting pursuit, a potluck approach is unlikely to lead to a profitable outcome. Increase your chances of success by considering the following factors:
- Form and Performance: Analysing the recent form of teams is crucial. Look at the last five to ten matches to gauge how well a team is performing. Consider home and away performance separately, as some teams play significantly better at home.
- Head-to-Head Statistics: Reviewing the history of encounters between the two teams can provide insights. Some teams have a psychological edge over others, often reflected in their head-to-head record. The more recent the clash, the more relevant it should be to your decision-making process.
- Injuries and Suspensions: Key player absences will impact performance. Stay updated on the latest injury news and suspensions, as these can influence match outcomes and betting odds. Key positions to look out for are goalkeeper, central defence, central midfield and centre forward. If a side loses their number one in any of these positions, their winning chance is likely to decrease – sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot, depending on the overall impact of the missing player.
- Managerial Changes: A new manager can change the dynamics of a team. Consider the impact of recent managerial changes and their style of play. Teams often temporarily improve following the appointment of a new boss – in football parlance, this is known as the “New Manager Effect”
Betting Strategies
- Value Betting: Seek out bets where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring. This is never an exact science, but assigning a percentage chance to an outcome and then comparing this to the odds on offer is sound practice.
- Bankroll Management: Set a budget for your betting activities and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses and betting more than you can afford to lose. It’s wise to use a staking plan, such as betting a fixed percentage of your bankroll on each bet.
- Specializing: Instead of spreading your bets across many markets, focus on specific teams or types of bets. This allows for deeper analysis and better-informed betting decisions.
Utilizing Technology and Resources
- Betting Exchanges: Platforms like Betfair allow you to bet against other punters rather than the bookmaker. This can offer better odds and the option to lay bets (bet against an outcome).
- Statistical Tools: Use websites and software that provide detailed statistics such as Expected Goals (xG), which can often paint a clearer picture of how a side is performing than a quick look at their recent results.
- In-Play Betting: Live betting can be advantageous if you read the game well. Watching matches and placing bets based on the flow can offer more opportunities than pre-match betting.
Always Gamble Responsibly: Betting should be a fun activity, not a source of stress. Set limits, take breaks, and seek help if your betting is becoming a problem. Organizations like GamCare and BeGambleAware offer support for problem gambling.