The Lions and Chiefs had byes last week as No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. Based on the NFL Divisional Round betting trends, that might not be a good thing.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Home Teams off a Bye
The Chiefs and Lions will each play on Saturday. Kansas City is an 8.5-point home favorite versus the Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET, while the Lions host the Commanders as 10-point favorites at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional round that are coming off a first-round bye, are just 33-42-1 against the spread. That includes a 3-5 ATS mark since 2020. As home favorites of seven or more points coming off a bye, like the Chiefs and Lions, teams are just 17-24-1 against the number.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Great News for Baltimore Backers
Since Lamar Jackson has taken over as their starting quarterback, the Ravens are 17-3 against the spread when they open as an underdog. There’s only been six instances in Jackson’s career when he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite. The Ravens are 6-0 straight up and against the umber.
The Ravens opened as 1.5-point underdogs against the Bills on Sunday. They’re now 1-point favorites in Buffalo at 6:30 p.m. ET.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: That said, consider Buffalo in the 2H
Looking to bet the Bills? You may want to consider waiting until the second half. The Bills have covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which Josh Allen played the second half. Allen and the Bills are 15-2 in the second half against the spread this season. Buffalo is also 74-44-3 against the number in the second half all-time with Allen as the team’s quarterback.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: One Team to back in the First Half
The best first half ATS team in the NFL is playing this weekend. Better yet? They’ll be receiving points. The Texans are 14-4 against the number in the first half of games this season. Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans are 26-11 against the number in the first half of games.
In the Wildcard round, the Texans fell behind 6-0 to the Chargers in the first quarter. That said, they rallied with 10 points in the second to take a 4-point halftime lead and cover the first half spread.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Rams, Stafford profitable as underdog
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have won five games outright as an underdog this season. They beat the 49ers 27-24 in Week 3 as a 6.5-point dog. They topped the Vikings 30-20 as a 2.5-point dog in Week 8. In Week 14, they shocked the Bills 44-42 as a 3.5-point underdog. The following week , they took down the 49ers in San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog.
Then on Monday night, the Rams beat the Vikings as a 2.5-point underdog in Arizona. If you’re concerned about backing the Rams on short rest, know that Sean McVay is 16-7 against the spread with the Rams on short rest. McVay is 7-1 at the betting window in his last eight games in this spot, including 12-2 at the window in his last 14 games on short rest.