Pirates vs. Padres Pick
The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to scuffle and tonight’s pitching matchup with the San Diego Padres at 10:10PM ET might not provide the Bucs will much optimism.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Padres are -108 money line favorites over the visiting Pirates, who are +100 underdogs for tonight’s game. The total, with Jeff Locke and Drew Pomeranz on the mound for their respective teams, is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Bet Tonight’s Pirates vs. Padres Game
Locke has not pitched well in two starts this season. He’s coming off a performance against the Brewers in which he allowed three runs on five hits over just 4 2/3 innings of work. His ERA is a respectable 2.53, but his FIP (5.88) and xFIP (5.93) paint entirely different outlooks. His biggest issues are his strikeout (4.22) and walk rates (7.59). He’s keeping the ball in the yard (0.84) but he can’t keep walking batters at the rate he has through two starts.
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As for Pomeranz, he’s 1-1 on the year with a 3.27 ERA through 11 innings pitched. His FIP (3.16) and xFIP (3.48) match his ERA so nothing is alarming there, plus he’s struck out 12.27 batters through nine, which is impressive, but his walk rate is 4.91 as well. He’s due for some poor batted-ball luck (.261) but he’s at least been competitive.
OUR PICK: The Pirates have lost four of their last five road games and are just 2-5 in Locke’s last seven starts. They’re also 1-4 in his last five road starts and 1-5 in his last six outings versus the National League West. The Bucs, despite all of their great play over the last three seasons, are just 21-43 in their last 64 games versus the Padres, who offer some value tonight on the money line assuming Pomeranz can carve up Pittsburgh’s lineup and not issue too many walks.
WEDNESDAY MLB FREE PICK: SAN DIEGO PADRES -108
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