Auburn vs. Ole Miss Preview
OXFORD, MS – Home wins over a pair of top 15 opponents have given Auburn a boost in the Top 25 over the past two weeks.
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The Tigers’ place in the BCS standings, on the other hand, can’t get any better.
Quarterback Cam Newton and third-ranked Auburn appear to be in prime position to give the SEC a fifth consecutive representative in the BCS championship game, but they’ll need to be careful Saturday at Mississippi after narrowly escaping their previous two road contests.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made Auburn –7 point spread favorites for Saturday’s game against Ole Miss. Current NCAA Public Betting Information shows that 82% of more than 3,620 bets for this game have been placed on Auburn -7.
The Tigers (8-0, 5-0) started the season ranked 22nd but have made a slow and steady rise behind an offense led by the versatile Newton, who has become a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.
They didn’t have to make such a dramatic climb in the BCS standings, where they were fourth in the initial rankings Oct. 17 after beating then-No. 12 Arkansas 65-43 a day earlier. Newton followed that four-touchdown performance by running for 217 yards and two scores in a 24-17 win over then-No. 6 LSU last Saturday.
The win, combined with top-ranked Oklahoma’s loss at Missouri that night, helped the Tigers leapfrog Oregon and Boise State to the top of the BCS standings.
Not that Newton is booking a trip to Glendale, Ariz., for the Jan. 10 BCS title game just yet.
“It doesn’t matter after Week 8 if we’re No. 1,” Newton said. “There’s only one week that it really matters and that’s at the end of the year.”
The Tigers would almost certainly stay atop the BCS standings if they keep on winning, particularly since they could still climb two spots in the poll. After visiting Ole Miss (3-4, 1-3), they’ll host Chattanooga and Georgia before closing the season at rival Alabama.
Assuming they’re unbeaten heading into that meeting and they win there, a trip to the SEC championship game awaits. A victory in Atlanta would then give Auburn a shot at being the fifth straight SEC team to win the BCS championship.
“As I say every week, we can be happy with the result, but we shouldn’t at all be satisfied with where we’re at,” coach Gene Chizik said. “We’re still in search of trying to play a game of four quarters, which we haven’t done yet, in my opinion.”
There’s no reason Chizik’s offense should have trouble against a Rebels team that’s 10th in the SEC in total defense, allowing 370.6 yards per game. Arkansas gained 464 yards – 197 on the ground – last Saturday in a 38-24 win.
That was a step backward from the previous week, when the Rebels held reigning national champion Alabama to 319 yards in a 23-10 loss.
“It’s missed tackles,” coach Houston Nutt said. “It’s fundamentals. You can’t have three missed tackles in our league or that back is going to go the distance … It’s such a backbreaker.”
Arkansas tailback Knile Davis ran for 176 yards and three touchdowns, numbers that have to leave Newton anxiously awaiting his crack at facing Ole Miss. Auburn has run for at least 300 yards in four straight games against SEC opponents behind Newton, who leads the nation with 14 rushing touchdowns.
“He’s a triple threat, all the way around, because of handing if off, running and throwing,” Nutt said. “He’s brought the offense alive because you’ve got that kind of weapon and that kind of leader and all those intangibles.”
Auburn has won both of its road games by three points, and Ole Miss might have enough offensive balance to stay close deep into Saturday’s game. The Rebels are averaging 211.1 yards per game on the ground behind tailback Brandon Bolden and dual-threat quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, and 199.1 through the air.
They’ll have to hope Masoli can look as good as he did against Arkansas. The Oregon transfer threw for 327 yards and three TDs in his best game since arriving in Oxford.
Considering Auburn is 101st nationally in pass defense by allowing 248.9 yards per game, Chizik has valid reasons to be concerned.
“When (Masoli) gets outside the pocket and he throws the ball down the field, they’re making a lot of big things happen,” Chizik said. “He brings definitely a dimension to the team that’s two-fold, and his athletic ability is the reason he’s able to do those things.”
Ole Miss has split its last six games against top 10 opponents. Auburn had won seven straight road games against the Rebels before losing 17-7 in 2008.
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