CFB Top 10 Ranking Based on Odds
The new college football playoff rankings won’t come out until Tuesday night but as we do every week, here’s a look at the top 10 based on odds to win the national championship. Some in the top 10 might surprise you.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
This is no surprise. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Crimson Tide are 10/11 favorites to win the 2017-18 college football national championship. Following its win over Mississippi State in Week 11, Nick Saban’s team is now a perfect 10-0 and ranks No. 1 in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. With victories over then-No. 3 Florida State, then-No. 19 LSU, and now over No. 16 Mississippi State, Alabama should have no problem securing the top spot in the committee’s rankings. A date with current No. 10 Auburn does await on November 25, however.
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2. Oklahoma Sooners
After waxing TCU on Saturday night in Norman, the Sooners jumped to No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and No. 5 in the Coaches Poll. They also have the next-best odds behind Alabama to win the national championship at 4/1. With their victory over the Horned Frogs, the Sooners now have wins over three ranked opponents: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 11 Oklahoma State, and No. 6 TCU. They did have the slip-up versus unranked Iowa State at home but the committee is forgiving of one-loss teams as long as they compile quality victories along the way.
3. Clemson Tigers
For some reason it feels like the defending champs are flying under the radar. With their win over Florida State on Saturday, the Tigers are now 15/2 to win the national championship. Outside of facing Miami in the ACC championship game this year, Clemson is finished with the difficult part of its schedule (although South Carolina is pesky and that’s a rivalry so you never know). Despite losing to unranked Syracuse on the road when quarterback Kelly Bryant was hurt, the Tigers have put together one of the more impressive resumes in college football this year. They beat No. 14 Louisville, No. 12 Virginia Tech, No. 20 N.C. State and still face No. 7 Miami on December 2 in the ACC title game.
4. Miami Hurricanes
The most disrespected team in the nation is now the most revered. Following their impressive beat-down of Notre Dame over the weekend, the Hurricanes have climbed to No. 2 in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. They’re also now 15/2 to win this season’s national championship, which gives them the same odds as Clemson. Can they stay unscathed? If so, they could wind up being the No. 1 seed when the playoffs start. The Hurricanes face Virginia and Pittsburgh, and then Clemson in the ACC title game. Should be interesting.
5. Auburn Tigers
Here’s where things get interesting. Auburn has two losses and no two-loss team has ever made the college football playoff. That said, oddsmakers realize that the Tigers virtually write their own ticket this season despite those two losses. Auburn is 10/1 to win the national championship and finds itself on the outside looking in at a top-4 spot in the playoffs. That said, with wins over No. 24 Mississippi State and No. 1 Georgia, if the Tigers were to beat Alabama at the end of the season and play their way into the SEC title game, they still have a chance to build a compelling resume to get into the playoffs. They’re now the most dangerous team in college football following their upset of Georgia on Saturday. They’ll be a major public favorite the rest of the way.
6. Georgia Bulldogs
It’s incredible how quickly things can change. Georgia was the most impressive team in the nation until it ran into Auburn last Saturday. Now they look like potential frauds despite quality wins over Notre Dame and Mississippi State. The Dawgs have Kentucky and Georgia Tech to round out their season so they can’t pick up another quality win until the SEC title game where they’ll face either Alabama or get a rematch with Auburn. Needless to say, Georgia now needs to win out if they’re going to make the playoffs. They’re 12/1 to win the national championship.
7. Wisconsin Badgers
Another team that is 12/1 to win the title game is the undefeated Badgers. The problem is obvious for Wisconsin: It doesn’t have enough quality wins. But the Badgers have two things going for them: One, they’re unbeaten, and two, they play in a Power-5 conference that plays a title game. If they can stay unbeaten and win the Big Ten championship game this year, the committee might have no choice but to put Wisconsin into the final four.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
Despite losing to Oklahoma and Iowa, the Buckeyes are still hanging around. You can’t kill off Urban Meyer’s squad. The problem is that they only have one quality win and that’s against Penn State. They’ve fluffed their resume with wins against unranked teams but here’s the thing: If the Buckeyes beat Michigan at the end of the year and then Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game, you’re telling us OSU doesn’t have a shot to play in the playoffs? Remember, the Buckeyes didn’t even win their division, let alone conference, when they secured a place in the top 4 last year. That said, the committee looked foolish when Meyer’s team got run over by Clemson, so perhaps they won’t make that same mistake again. Ohio State is 18/1 to win the national championship.
9. USC Trojans
This is another team that is just hanging around, waiting for teams ahead of them to screw up. Viewed as a legitimate national title contender at the start of the year, USC has had a weird season. The Trojans never really got on track from the start and now they’re a 70/1 long shot to win the whole thing, yet they’re still in the mix. Still, it’s unlikely that USC, or any team from the Pac-12 for that matter, makes the college football playoff. The conference isn’t strong enough this year.
10. Michigan Wolverines
The only reason the Wolverines are still in the top-10 in oddsmakers’ minds is because they’ll face Wisconsin and Ohio State to close out its season. With wins over those two teams, the Wolverines would have three quality wins and their two losses would come against Michigan State and Penn State (no harm in either loss). Still, at 80/1, it’s not going to happen for Michigan. This is a true long-shot.