Saints vs. Falcons Prediction
Will the red-hot New Orleans Saints distance themselves further in the NFC South with a victory over the Atlanta Falcons tonight at 8:25 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New Orleans. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Saints are 1-point road favorites versus the Falcons, who opened as a 2-point favorite before the line jumped the fence. As for the total, the number hit the board at 55 but dropped all the way down to 51.5.
Who the Public Likes: New Orleans. As of Sunday morning, the Saints are receiving 61% of the betting tickets and 67% of money.
Who the Trends Like: The underdog, the road team, and the under. In the last 16 meetings between these two teams, the underdog is 13-3 against the spread. The road team is also 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings while the under has cashed in six of the last eight games in Atlanta.
Who We Like: New Orleans. If you look back at the teams that have given the Falcons trouble, it’s been the opponents that can run the football. The Bears rushed for 125 yards in Week 1 against Atlanta and covered the spread in a loss. Buffalo rushed for 117 yards against Atlanta and won outright as a road underdog. Miami rushed for 138 yards against Atlanta and won outright as a road underdog. New England rushed for 162 yards against Atlanta and crushed the Falcons as a small home favorite. Carolina rushed for 201 yards against Atlanta in Week 9, won and covered. Last week, Minnesota rushed for 105 yards against Atlanta and beat the Falcons outright as an underdog.
The only two teams that rushed for over 100 yards and didn’t beat the Falcons were the Cowboys and Seahawks. Dallas was severely banged-up and Seattle got most of those yards from quarterback Russell Wilson, who nearly brought the Seahawks from behind in the fourth quarter of that Monday night game a few weeks ago.
The point? The Saints are one of the top rushing teams in the NFL thanks to Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. They’re going to run the football down Atlanta’s throat, keep Matt Ryan and that inconsistent Falcons offense off the field, and roll to a victory tonight. It’s amazing the Saints are only laying 1 point in what is a massive mismatch.
NFL WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1